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INO Evening Markets
Ken Seehusen - Mon Feb 8 2010 at 4:24 PM
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
7:30 AM ET. Jan NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
Small Business Optimism Index (previous 88)
7:45 AM ET. Feb 6 ICSC/Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales
Chain Store Sales Index - WoW (previous +0.1%)
Chain Store Sales Index ? YoY (previous +0.4%)
8:55 AM ET. Feb 6 Redbook Index
MoM % Change (previous -1.5%)
12MonChgPct (previous +1%)
52WkChgPct (previous +0.8%)
10:00 AM ET. Feb US IBD/TIPP Econ Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Index (previous 48.8)
6-Month Economic Outlook (previous 51.8)
10:00 AM ET. Dec Wholesale Trade
Inventories (expected +0.5%; previous +1.5%)
4:30 PM ET. Feb 5 API Oil Industry Report
Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +4.72M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.16M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.02M)
Refinery Runs (previous 78%)
5:00 PM ET. Feb 7 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index
ABC News Consumer Confidence Index (previous ?49)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Monday but remains above the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 1711.43. Today?s low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January?s high, the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 1679.96 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday?s high crossing at 1792.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1763.80. Second resistance is last Thursday?s high crossing at 1792.00. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 1710.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 1679.96.
The March S&P 500 index posted a new low close for the year on Monday as it extends the decline off January?s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January?s high, the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 1036.92 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1102.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1078.73. Second resistance is last Tuesday?s high crossing at 1101.50. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 1041.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 1036.92.
The Dow posted a new low close for the year on Monday as it extends this year?s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off January?s high, the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 9,810 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,335 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,132. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,335. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 9,835. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 9,810.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest " TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest
March T-bonds closed down 9/32?s at 119-06.
March T-bonds closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of last week?s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned bullish signaling that additional strength is now possible near-term. If March extends last week?s rally, the 62% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 119-24 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday?s low crossing at 117-08 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday?s high crossing at 119-18. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 119-24. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 118-15. Second support is Thursday?s low crossing at 117-29.
The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest " TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy
March crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it rebounded off the 87% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 69.58. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January?s high, September?s low crossing at 67.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.97. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.25. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 69.50. Second support is September?s low crossing at 67.46.
March heating oil closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last week?s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter?s decline, September?s low crossing at 179.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.17. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 182.72. Second support is September?s low crossing at 179.95.
March unleaded gas closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off January?s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January?s high, the 87% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 178.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.81. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.37. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 184.19. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 178.69.
March Henry natural gas posted a downside reversal on Monday and closed below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.474. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January?s low, the reaction high crossing at 5.804 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday?s low crossing at 5.227 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 5.680. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.804. First support is last Thursday?s low crossing at 5.227. Second support is January?s low crossing at 5.060.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies
The March Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of last week?s rally but remains above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 79.71. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter?s rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday?s high crossing at 80.82. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2001-decline crossing at 81.32. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.54. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.62.
The March Euro closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last week?s decline but remains below the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 137.735. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter?s decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 134.493 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.980 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 138.799. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.980. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 135.840. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 134.493.
The March British Pound closed slightly higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last week?s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January?s high, the 50% retracement level of 2009?s rally crossing at 1.5381 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6075 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5919. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6075. First support is today?s low crossing at 1.5531. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2009?s rally crossing at 1.5381.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last week?s decline but remains below the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at .9399. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November?s high, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at .9192 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9581 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9446. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9581. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at .9264. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at .9192.
The March Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off January?s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January?s high, November?s low crossing at 92.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday?s high crossing at 94.83. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.97. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 92.74. Second support is November?s low crossing at 92.17.
The March Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of last week?s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January?s low, the 62% retracement level of the November-January decline crossing at .11364 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday?s low crossing at .10957 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday?s high crossing at .11295. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-January decline crossing at .11364. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11118. Second support is last Wednesday?s low crossing at .11039.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals
April gold closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off December?s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If April extends last week?s decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 1035.00 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1105.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1087.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1105.70. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 1044.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 1035.00.
March silver closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last week?s decline but remains below the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 15.456. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January?s high, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 14.205 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.076 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.068. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.076. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 14.650. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 14.205.
March copper closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off January?s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this year?s decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing at 269.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 304.96. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.38. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 281.10. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing at 269.66.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March Corn closed up 4 1/2-cents at 3.56.
March corn closed higher on Monday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this year?s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.68 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this year?s decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.42 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday?s high crossing at 3.68 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.68 1/2. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 3.47 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.42 3/4.
March wheat closed up 10 3/4-cents at 4.84.
March wheat closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last week?s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this winter?s decline, October?s low crossing at 4.59 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday?s high crossing at 4.94 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.99. First support is last Thursday?s low crossing at 4.66 1/2. Second support is October?s low crossing at 4.59.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 11-cents at 4.95 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last week?s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be near. Closes above the January 19th gap crossing at 5.11 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January?s high, October?s low crossing at 4.75 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday?s high crossing at 5.03. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.05. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 4.80 3/4. Second support is October?s low crossing at 4.75 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up 9 1/4-cents at 5.11 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat gapped up and closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of this winter?s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.16 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this winter?s decline, September?s low crossing at 4.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday?s high crossing at 5.16 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.16 3/4. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 4.97. Second support is September?s low crossing at 4.93.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March soybeans closed up 16-cents at 9.29 1/2.
March soybeans closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of this winter?s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a low might be near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this winter?s decline, October?s low crossing at 8.88 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 9.39 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.46. First support is last Thursday?s low crossing at 9.00. Second support is October?s low crossing at 8.88 1/4.
March soybean meal closed up $3.40 at $274.40.
March soybean meal closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it extends the rebound off last Thursday?s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a low might be near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 282.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this winter?s decline, October?s low crossing at 262.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is today?s high crossing near 276.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 282.20. First support is last Thursday?s low crossing at 265.60. Second support is October?s low crossing at 262.00.
March soybean oil closed up 95 pts. at 37.95.
March soybean oil closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 37.26 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month?s rebound, the reaction high crossing at 39.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 36.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 38.47. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 39.02. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 36.81. Second support is last Monday?s low crossing at 35.80.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $0.88 at $67.58.
February hogs closed higher on Monday as it extended the rebound off this month?s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off January?s high, December?s low crossing at 63.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 67.80. Second resistance is the January 26th gap crossing at 68.30. First support is last Monday?s low crossing at 64.20. Second support is December?s low crossing at 63.70.
February bellies closed up $1.00 at $81.00.
February bellies closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last week?s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off January?s high, October?s low crossing at 76.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday?s high crossing at 83.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.68. First support is last Friday?s low crossing at 80.00. Second support is October?s low crossing at 76.40.
April cattle closed up $0.40 at 90.80.
April cattle closed higher on Monday as it extended last week?s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month?s rally, January?s high crossing at 91.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 91.20. Second resistance is January?s high crossing at 91.35. First support is last Friday?s gap crossing at 90.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.98.
March feeder cattle closed up $0.90 at $99.23.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off last week?s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December?s low, the 87% retracement level of 2009?s decline crossing at 101.26 is the next upside target. Closes below last week?s low crossing at 97.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 99.65. Second resistance is December?s high crossing at 99.95. First support is last Wednesday?s low crossing at 97.10. Second support is the December 12th gap crossing at 96.85.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off December?s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December?s high, September?s low crossing at 12.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off January?s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year?s decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 29.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.79 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
March sugar closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it rebounded off the 25% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing at 25.80. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week?s decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing at 23.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.42 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
March cotton closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it rebounded off the 50% retracement level of the June-January rally crossing at 67.12. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.50 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends decline off the January high, the 62% retracement level of the June-January rally crossing at 64.82 is the next downside target.
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