Ring the Bell (S&P)
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Started by Richard - Jan. 19, 2018, 12:14 p.m.

I said it once and now I will say it again. Ring the bell. Stocks peaked at 2810 and are set for a decline. Not a crash and not the end of the bull market. I am aware that picking tops is dangerous, so be cautious here. Top reasons - We are further above the 200 dma, then we have ever been in the past.  Growth rates in M2 are horrible low.


Comments
By joj - Jan. 19, 2018, 9:29 p.m.
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The stat about the 200 dma was true 2000 points ago in the DJI.  Market marched on.

The breadth numbers in the market throughout 2017 were horrible.  Reminiscent of the top ind 1973 with the "nifty 50".  The market shrugged it off to ever higher highs.  

I just looked at an M2 chart and noticed that in 2011 there was a marked increase.  Stocks had a nice break that year.  But I do note that it has been trending down of late.  Thanks for pointing that out.

I don't think the market can break until it blows off its top.  

Just my 2 cents worth.

By Richard - Jan. 21, 2018, 7:16 a.m.
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Well a Government shut down is going to happen and it is all coordinated with a top in the stock market and other markets. 

I think we will open lower on Monday and never look back. Stick a fork in it, this thing is done. My new number one reason is Janet Yellon is leaving the fed soon and the fed can not pass off to a new person with "THINGS" going up. The FED wants a decline so they can turn things over to a new chairman.

If the market opens higher on Monday and continues higher then I am wrong real quick.

By mcfarm - Jan. 21, 2018, 8:42 a.m.
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IMHO the shutdown is over first part of the week and no reason market stops here

By Richard - Jan. 22, 2018, 2:10 p.m.
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At first appearance it seems things are just fine, but the shutdown has only been postponed for a mere 3 weeks. So my guess is "They" planned for a "TOP" in "STUFF" many weeks ago and now it seems the markets are too strong and not ready to top so no doubt Goldman Sachs will come in and buy the crap out of this market and then try again in 3 weeks. Happy Trading.. . .

By Richard - Feb. 2, 2018, 9:03 a.m.
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Well it looks like I was exactly one week early on the top, but that is water under the bridge.

The top is in and we are headed down. Now, How long do we go ? ? 

Anyone else into a Limbo party ?

By joj - Feb. 2, 2018, 9:50 a.m.
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Richard,

I like shorting the market while it is heading down (as it is this week) far more than the risky proposition of shorting it while it is ripping higher.   You have a plausible high in place.  Define your risk and take your shots.  Good luck.

By TimNew - Feb. 2, 2018, 9:53 a.m.
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This is all a reaction to the Fed tightening policy and coupled with a case of "too much too soon"


Earnings are coming in very strong and the overall economy is positive in all sectors.


This mini-correction will end early next week at the latest.

By Julie_Hardy_Moderator - Feb. 2, 2018, 10:08 a.m.
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Dow 5,000 here we come. The talking heads  will say to kep puting your money in.

By TimNew - Feb. 2, 2018, 12:13 p.m.
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I've seen people bearish the dow since it was at 7k, and I've seen people bullish oil since it was 130.


Takes all kinds to make a market  :-)

By Julie_Hardy_Moderator - Feb. 2, 2018, 1:47 p.m.
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To be fair, the E-Mini rose 200 points in January so a 50% correction of that would not be odd. And those indices are still at epic levels thanks to the Fed. propping it up for nine years.

By TimNew - Feb. 2, 2018, 8:51 p.m.
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A DOW 5k would require an economic meltdown that seems extremely unlikely given the consistently upbeat earnings reports and assorted economic reports. 


A 50% retracement of the recent unprecedented gains is not at all unreasonable. The market was looking for an excuse.  But that excuse will wear very thin in the near term.

By Richard - Feb. 14, 2018, 1:06 p.m.
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It looks like the downside has been tested repeatedly over the past 1 - 2 weeks and the downside risks are no longer there. An upside break out is developing, but has not been confirmed until S&P cash is above the 50 DMA around 2721