INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 8, 2017, 7:58 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, December 8, 2017  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +195K; previous +261K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 4.1%; previous 4.1%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 26.53)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous -0.01)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous -0.04%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.4%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous +9K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +252K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 99.9; previous 97.8)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 87.6)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.6)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

  N/A               Suspension of U.S. federal debt limit expires

 



 

 

Monday, December 11, 2017   

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Employment Trends Index

 



 

 

                       ETI (previous 135.57)

 



 

 

                       ETI, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. ISM Semiannual Report On Business & Economic Forecast

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. World Economic Situation and Prospects report

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as technology stocks are poised to push higher today, as Nasdaq futures are outperforming the other major benchmarks. Traders were also looking ahead to the top-tier U.S. monthly jobs report, due before the market opens today. Sentiment was also underpinned by an upbeat session in Europe, where stocks rallied after a major breakthrough in Brexit talks between London and Brussels put negotiators in position to advance to the next phase.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 6418.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 6229.79 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 6418.50. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 6448.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 6250.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6229.79.



The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2609.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2664.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2609.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2580.25.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were slightly lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-02 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 156-14 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 154-18. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 156-14. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-02. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 150-30.  



March T-notes were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.225 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 125.065. If March renews the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 123.270 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.217. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 125.065. First support is October's low crossing at 123.270. Second support is weekly support crossing at 123.180. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: JanuaryNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 57.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends this week's decline, the 25% retracement level of the June-November crossing at 55.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 59.05. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 60.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the June-November crossing at 55.11. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-November crossing at 53.04.



January heating oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidaetes some of the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If January renews the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 198.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 186.33 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is November's high crossing at 196.52. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 198.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 186.33. Second support is November's low crossing at 184.00.      



January unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 173.87 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 160.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 179.40. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 181.51. First support is the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 160.49. Second support is October's low crossing at 152.48. 



January Henry natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the late-November high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the February-2016 low crossing at 2.720 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.065 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.979. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.065. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 2.747. Second support is the February-2016 low crossing at 2.720.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was  higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 93.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 93.75. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 94.76. First support is November's low crossing at 92.13. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 91.69.



The March Euro was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 121.49 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 120.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.49. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.53. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 117.99. 



The March British Pound was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3375 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 1.3666 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3598. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3666. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3375. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3303.  



The March Swiss Franc were lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 1.0062 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0235 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0328. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0083. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0062.    



The March Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below October's low crossing at 77.55 are needed to renew the decline off September's high.Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.92 would open the door for a possible test of October's high crossing at 80.42. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.92. Second resistance is October's highcrossing at 80.42. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 77.58. Second support is October's low crossing at 77.55.



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 0.8842 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.8956 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9072. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.8842. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold were slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 1233.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1283.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1283.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1303.40. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1245.80. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 1233.90.  



March silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 15.626 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.741 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.356. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.741. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 15.660. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 15.626.     



March copper was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 291.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 310.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 312.55. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 320.15. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 294.30. Second support is October's low crossing at 291.35. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March Corn was up 1 3/4-cents at 3.53 1/4. 



March corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 3.48 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.59 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.59. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.65 1/4. First support is November's low crossing at 3.48 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.  



March wheat was up 1 1/4-cents at $4.22 3/4. 



March wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 4.11 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.45 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.45. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.60 3/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.19 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.11 1/4.



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 2 3/4-cents at 4.20 3/4. 



March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday and posted a new contract low as it renewed the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 4.11 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.43 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.43 1/4. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 4.56 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 4.18 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.11 1/4.  



March Minneapolis wheat was up 2 3/4-cents overnight at 6.13 3/4. 



March Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.33. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 6.66. First support is the overnight low crossing at 6.10 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were up 3 1/4-cents at 9.95 1/4. 



January soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.88 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-August-decline crossing at 10.23 is the next upside target. First resistance October's high crossing at 10.13. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-August-decline crossing at 10.23. First support is the reaction low crossing at 9.85. Second support is November's low crossing at 9.67. 



January soybean meal was up $1.60 at 336.80. 



January soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 326.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January resumes the rally off November's low, July's high crossing at 349.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 348.20. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 349.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 333.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 326.00. 



January soybean oil was down 4 pts. at 33.29. 



January soybean oil was lower overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.02 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If January extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 32.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.02. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 35.61. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 32.80. Second support is October's low crossing at 32.47. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $0.48 at $68.48. 



February hogs closed lower on Thursday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.95 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target. If February renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 73.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 72.25. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 73.30. First support is the reaction low crossing at 66.88. Second support is November's low crossing at 66.25. 



February cattle closed down $0.60 at 118.68. 



February cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 118.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.22 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.22. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 131.95. First support is the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 118.03. Second support is October's low crossing at 116.83. 

 

January Feeder cattle closed up $0.30 at $146.33. 



January Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 144.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 153.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 156.05. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 162.08. First support is today's low crossing at 144.90. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 144.16.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed sharply lower on Thursday marking a downside breakout of the October-November trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.91 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



March cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at 18.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.81 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



March sugar closed lower on Thursday as it extends yesterday's breakout below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.58. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 13.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.11 would temper the bearish outlook.  



March cotton posted a key reversal up on Thursday as it renewed the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, April's high crossing at 74.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.09 would confirm a short-term top has been posted. 

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