KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 1, 2018
7:30 AM ET. January Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -7.4%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1890.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1527.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 190.6K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +0.6%; previous +3.0%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +0.9%; previous +0.5%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 235K; previous 233K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +17K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1937000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -28K)
9:30 AM ET. IMF regular press briefing
9:45 AM ET. January US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.1)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. December Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (expected +0.3%; previous +0.8%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. January ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (expected 58.5; previous 59.7)
Prices Idx (previous 69.0)
Employment Idx (previous 57.0)
Inventories (previous 48.5)
New Orders Idx (previous 69.4)
Production Idx (previous 65.8)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2296B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -288B)
11:00 AM ET. January Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 54.5)
4:00 PM ET. January Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Auto Sales Annualized (expected 17.3M; previous 17.85M)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, February 2, 2018
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +175K; previous +148K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 4.0%; previous 4.1%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 26.63)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.09)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.34%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.5%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +2K)
Private Payroll (previous +146K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
9:45 AM ET. January ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 56.3)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 95.0; previous 95.9)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 84.3)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.4%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.8)
10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous +1.3%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6816.85 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7047.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6935.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6816.85.
The March S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2795.34 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2878.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2795.34. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2708.11.
The Dow closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,854.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 26,529.44. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,854.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 25,256.99.
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March T-bonds closed up 16/32's at 147-29.
March T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high,weekly support crossing at 145-26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 148-20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-26. First support is today's low crossing at 147-03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 145-26.
March T-notes closed down 10/32's at 121-195.
March T-notes closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last September's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 120.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.207 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.033. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.207. First support is today's low crossing at 121.105. Second support is weekly support crossing at 120.285.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil closed higher on Wednesday.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 66.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.83. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 62.78.
March heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 202.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 213.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96. First support is the reaction low crossing at 202.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 199.23.
March unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.34 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 197.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 193.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 197.79. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.34. Second support is December's low crossing at 168.44.
March Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.973 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.901 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.281 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.177. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.281. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.901. Second support is January's low crossing at 2.693.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.43. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 88.25. Second support isweekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, monthly resistance crossing at 126.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 125.76. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.84. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.48.
The March British Pound closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3869 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.4370. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4093. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3869.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0464 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.0804. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0606. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0464.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.53. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.29.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9052 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 0.9260. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9140. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9052.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1332.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off December's low, September's high crossing at 1365.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1365.40. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1365.80.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1332.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1324.30.
March silver closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.756 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 18.015 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 18.015. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.157. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.756.
March copper closed slightly higher on Wednesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.11. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed unchanged at 3.61 1/2.
March corn closed unchanged on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 3.65 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.52 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.65 1/4. Second resistance is last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat closed down 5 3/4-cents at 4.51 1/2.
March wheat closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, last September's high crossing at 4.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.29 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.58 3/4. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.82. First support is January's low crossing at 4.13 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 2 1/2-cents at 4.67 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wedneday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's high, September's high crossing at 4.77 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.30 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.71 1/4. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.77 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 4.20 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 8 3/4-cents at 6.07 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.19 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 6.04 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed down 3 1/2-cents at 9.96 3/4.
March soybeans closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.75 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.16 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.87. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.75 1/2.
March soybean meal closed down $2.80 at 337.70.
March soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 328.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 351.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 348.50. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 351.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 336.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 328.00.
March soybean oil closed down 3 pts. At 33.05.
March soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rebound off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.40 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 34.10. First support is January's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.65 at $72.25.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 70.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.52. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.25. First support is December's low 70.97. Second support is November's low crossing at 70.62.
April cattle closed down $1.25 at 122.92.
April cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 127.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 126.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.37. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
March Feeder cattle closed down $2.12 at $145.05.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 142.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 154.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 156.13. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 142.42. Second support is January's low crossing at 140.13.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's decline, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.45 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 20.11 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's decline, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.91 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 75.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.