Dow down 680...market not believing profits? Or poetic justice on a MEMOrable day?
Apparently the markets took that memo seriously.
Not too often that you get evidence of the FBI colluding and using false evidence to investigate people and violating the Constitutional rights of Americans......especially in order to effect the outcome of an election, then to destroy the person that got elected when their candidate lost.
How about........never before on this scale. Yeah, I would say the markets early next week "might" be vulnerable.
Outside chance of a Black Swan event. The good news is that our economy is the strongest that its been in the last decade, along with the highest consumer and business confidence in a long time but reaction to this is unpredictable and I have zero expertise in predicting how investors or commodity funds with large positions might react on Monday.
"IF" the stock market crashes, it might spike commodity prices lower. But maybe it will be like the presidential election/night-next day results.........a shocker that spiked us lower, then quickly reversed higher.
I don't think the memo was the reason, or even the excuse for the market break. Bear markets (if this is one, IDK) begin with bullish news all around. Bull markets begin with bearish economic news all around. (climbing a wall of worry)
If you look at a bond chart or a 10 yr chart it is in a nice down trend for a while now. I think 2.8% in the 10 yr might just be the straw that broke the camels back. Also, mom and pop traders were all leaning to one side of the boat. They make great sellers.
IMO, the better than expected job numbers, particularly wage growth, put the fear of the fed on wall street. Bond yields, as mentioned are improving and that caused some shifting earlier in the week, but Friday's bloodbath was purely fear of aggressive interest rate hikes.
I expect the bull will resume early next week, probably Tuesday at the latest.