KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, February 6, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.1%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.2%)
8:30 AM ET. December U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -52.1B; previous -50.50B)
Exports (USD) (previous 200.22B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
Imports (USD) (previous 250.72B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +2.5%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.2%)
10:00 AM ET. December Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. December Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 AM ET. February IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 55.1)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 55.5)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.7M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.1M)
Refinery Runs
Wednesday, February 7, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 413.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.6%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 255.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.4%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1288.0)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.9%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 418.359M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.776M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 242.06M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.98M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 137.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.94M)
Refinery Usage (previous 88.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.003M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.367M)
3:00 PM ET. December Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +27.95B)
Thursday, February 8, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1881.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 409.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 289.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 233K; previous 230K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1953000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +13K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2197B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -99B)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
12:00 PM ET. January Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 9, 2018
10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.8%)
Monday, February 12, 2018
2:00 PM ET. January Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
N/A U.S. President Donald Trump releases Fiscal Year 2019 budget proposal today at the earliest
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Monday as it erased all of 2018's gains with today's decline.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 6250.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6887.43 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 7047.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is today's low crossing at 6390.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 6250.00.
The March S&P 500 posted its largest signal-day decline on Monday as it closed sharply lower for the second day in a row. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the November low crossing at 2565.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2810.74 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2810.74. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2878.40. First support is today's low crossing at 2629.00. Second support is November's low crossing at 2565.60.
The Dow closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Monday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,032.57 as it extends the sell off from January's high. U.S. stocks posted its worst one-day point drop in history, as the market’s selloff at times took on characteristics of panic sales. Today’s sell off was broad based, with a majority of S&P 500 sectors down and European and Asian markets finishing sharply lower. Japanese stocks suffered their biggest one-day drop since Nov. 9, 2016. The financial sector was among the biggest decliners, off more than 3% led by a sharp decline at Wells Fargo. Today's decline adds to the sector’s 2.2% decline on Friday. Energy stocks also fell along with a drop in crude oil prices. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 26,098.17 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 26,529.44. Second resistance is unknown. First support is today's low crossing at 23,923.88. Second support is November's low crossing at 23,242.75.
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March T-bonds closed up 2-00/32's at 146-25.
March T-bonds posted a huge key reversal up on Monday signaling that a shorr-term low has likely been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high,weekly support crossing at 143-25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-29 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 147-20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-29. First support is today's low crossing at 144-03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 143-25.
March T-notes closed up 1035/32's at 121-270.
March T-notes posted a huge key reversal up on Monday signaling a possible end to the decline off last September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.091 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 121.258. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.091. First support is today's low crossing at 120.180. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170.
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March crude oil closed lower on Monday driven in large part by a stronger dollar and rising U.S. crude production.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 62.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 66.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the reaction low crossing at 62.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.77.
March heating oil closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the reaction low crossing at 202.98 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 199.97 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 210.05 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 210.05. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 213.62. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 199.97. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 187.86.
March unleaded gas closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.98 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 197.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 193.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 197.79. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.98. Second support is December's low crossing at 168.44.
March Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 2.693 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.021 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.021. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.259. First support is January's crossing at 2.693. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.532.
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The March Dollar closed higher on Monday while extending the trading range of the past seven-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 90.76. First support is January's low crossing at 88.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, monthly resistance crossing at 126.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 125.76. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is the reaction low crossing at 123.71. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.08.
The March British Pound closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3954 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.4370. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1.4004. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3954.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0535 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.0829. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0706. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0535.
The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends the decline off last Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.92 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.44. Second support is January's low crossing at 79.48.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9087 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 0.9260. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9087. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8991.
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April gold closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1339.90. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1306.90 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off December's low, the August-2016 high crossing at 1396.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1396.20.First support is the reaction low crossing at 1313.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1306.90.
March silver closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 16.140 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 18.015 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 18.015. First support is today's low crossing at 16.510. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140.
March copper closed higher on Monday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 325.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 325.80. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.
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March Corn closed down 2 3/4-cents at 3.58 3/4.
March corn closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.52 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. Second resistance is last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.52 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2.
March wheat closed down 4 3/4-cents at 4.42.
March wheat closed lower due to profit taking on Monday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.34 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March extends the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 4.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.58 3/4. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.82. First support is January's low crossing at 4.13 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 1/2-cents at 4.61 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.41 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's high, September's high crossing at 4.77 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.71 1/4. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.77 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.51 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.41 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 2-cents at 6.01 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.17 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is today's low crossing at 6.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
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March soybeans closed down 8 1/2-cents at 9.70 1/4.
March soybeans closed lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.76 3/4 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 9.61 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.87 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.16 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 9.61 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 9.44 1/2.
March soybean meal closed down $4.30 at 327.10.
March soybean meal closed lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 329.70 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, minor support crossing at 323.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 336.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 348.50. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 351.20. First support is today's low crossing at 326.20. Second support is January's low crossing at 310.30.
March soybean oil closed up 3 pts. At 32.54.
March soybean oil closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.28. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 34.10. First support is January's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.
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April hogs closed down $0.23 at $73.33.
April hogs closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 70.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.52. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.25. First support is December's low 70.97. Second support is November's low crossing at 70.62.
April cattle closed down $0.65 at 125.48.
April cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 130.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.38. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.80. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
March Feeder cattle closed down $1.25 at $149.68.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 154.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 156.13. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142.42. Second support is January's low crossing at 140.13.
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March coffee closed lower on Monday and is poised to test key support marked by December's low crossing at 11.83. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's decline, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.41 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 21.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.67 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's decline, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 75.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.