INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 21, 2018, 7:39 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, February 21, 2018  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 399.4)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -4.1%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 240.4)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -5.9%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1274.0)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.9%)

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.8%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.6%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.1%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +2.8%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +2.8%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 53.3)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 55.5)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Existing Home Sales

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales (previous 5.57M)

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -3.6%)

 



 

 

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.2)

 



 

 

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 246800)

 



 

 

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)

 



 

 

2:00 AM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.9M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.6M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Runs

 



 

 

Thursday, February 22, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 230K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +7K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1942000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +15K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators

 



 

 

                       Leading Index (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Coincident Index (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Lagging Index (previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1884B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -194B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. February Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

 



 

 

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous 16)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 37)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous 16)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 29)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 422.095M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.841M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 249.073M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.599M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 141.367M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.459M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 89.8%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.284M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.559M)

 

                        

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, February 23, 2018   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2072K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 837.5K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 421.9K)

 



 

 

  N/A               Trump meets Australian PM at the White House

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stock futures signaled a dip at the open when the day session begins trading later this morning putting the equity market on track to extend the prior day’s selloff. Investors are set to focus on minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, with analysts saying they could hint at a more hawkish and assertive central bank. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 7047.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6625.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 6859.75. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 7047.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6625.30. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 6217.54.  



The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2736.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2678.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2736.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2839.00. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 2627.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2529.20.    



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were slightly higher overnight as they extend the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 140-03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 145-09. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-25. First support is February's low crossing at 143-04. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.  



March T-notes were slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last September's high, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.070 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.070. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.186. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 120.010. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: AprilNymex crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 56.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.62. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.39. First support is February's low crossing at 57.90. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 56.05.  



April heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 197.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 176.89 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 197.12. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 208.80. First support is February's low crossing at 180.97. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 176.89.      



April unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 179.34 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.09. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 208.46. First support is February's low crossing at 165.19. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 179.34.



April Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it continues to form a correction of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 2.551. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.745 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.715. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.745. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 2.551. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.487.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a double bottom with January's low appears to have been posted with last Friday's low. Closes above February's high crossing at 90.46 would confirm that a double bottom has been posted. Closes below key support marked by January's low crossing at 88.25 would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 87.45. First resistance is the February's high crossing at 90.46. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.84. First support is February's low crossing at 88.15. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.



The March Euro was lower in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a double top with January's high might have been posted last Friday. If March extends this week's decline, February's low crossing at 122.34 is the next downside target. Closes above January's high would open the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 126.74. First resistance is January's high crossing at 125.76. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is February's low crossing at 122.34. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.86. 



The March British Pound was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3958 would temper the friendly outlook. If March renews the rally off February's low, February's high crossing at 1.4302 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4302. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.4370. First support is February's low crossing at 1.3780. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3771.  



The March Swiss Franc were lower overnight as it extended the decline off last Friday's high. Stochastics and the RSI have turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0730 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1.0908. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0730. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.0589.      



The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extend the decline off last Friday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.20. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 81.68. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.56. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.06.



The March Japanese Yen was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9238 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9680 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9491. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9680. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9298. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9238.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1317.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 1370.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1364.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the Dec.-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.



March silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.635 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.796 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.796. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.705. First support is February's low crossing at 16.130. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.635. 



March copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 315.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 329.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 329.10. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 315.53. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 3.74 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.62 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 3.74 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.62 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.56 1/4.  



March wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.50 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 4.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.67 1/4. Second resistance is last September's high crossing at 4.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.50 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.38 3/4.    



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 6 3/4-cents at 4.77 3/4. 



March Kansas City wheat posted a key reversal down on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.62 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's high, the 38% retracement level of 2017's trading range crossing at 4.88 1/2. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.85 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of 2017's trading range crossing at 4.88 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.62 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.54 1/2.   



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 6.21 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.21 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 5.99 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans were steady to fractionally higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, last-July's high crossing at 10.50 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.97 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 10.39. Second resistance is last-July's high crossing at 10.50 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.97 3/4.



March soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 361.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 397.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 385.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 397.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 361.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 348.40.



March soybean oil was steady overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.35 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.35. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.85. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 31.40. Second support is the July-2016 low crossing at 31.19.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $1.05 at $69.20. 



April hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 69.66. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.64. First support is the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60.



April cattle closed up $0.08 at 127.73. 



April cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 130.10 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below reaction low crossing at 122.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 127.95. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is the reaction low crossing at 122.80. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.08 at $149.80. 



March Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 147.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off February's low, February's high crossing at 151.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 151.95. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. First support is the reaction low crossing at 144.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 142.42.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed slightly higher on Tuesday but remains below the lower boundary of a three-month old trading range crossing at 118.30. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.27 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted.  



March cocoa closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 21.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



March sugar closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 13.17 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.00 is the next upside target. 



March cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 73.52 is the next downside target. 

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