KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, February 27, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.6%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.1%)
8:30 AM ET. January Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +2.9%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
8:30 AM ET. January Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, (previous -0.7%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.7%)
9:00 AM ET. December S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.1%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.4%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)
9:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. December U.S. Monthly House Price Index
10:00 AM ET. February Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 125.4)
Expectation Idx (previous 105)
Present Situation Idx (previous 155.3)
10:00 AM ET. February Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 14)
Retail Revenues Idx
Services Rev Idx
Shipments Idx (previous 15)
3:00 PM ET. February Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.5M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.6M)
Refinery Runs
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 372.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -6.6%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 225.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -6.2%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1183.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -7.1%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter 2nd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +2.6%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.4%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +4.7%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.8%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +3.2%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.9%)
Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +3.8%0
9:45 AM ET. February ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 65.7)
10:00 AM ET. January Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 110.1)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +0.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 420.479M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.616M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 249.334M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.261M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 138.945M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.422M)
Refinery Usage (previous 88.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.454M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.17M)
4:00 PM ET. Foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. securities preliminary results
Thursday, March 1, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 222K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -7K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1875000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -73K)
8:30 AM ET. January Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.7%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)
9:30 AM ET. IMF regular press briefing
9:45 AM ET. February US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.5)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. January Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous +0.7%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. February ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (previous 59.1)
Prices Idx (previous 72.7)
Employment Idx (previous 54.2)
Inventories (previous 52.3)
New Orders Idx (previous 65.4)
Production Idx (previous 64.5)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1760B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -124B)
11:00 AM ET. February Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 54.4)
4:00 PM ET. February Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Auto Sales Annualized (previous 17.16M)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, March 2, 2018
9:45 AM ET. February ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 72.5)
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 95.7)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 86.3)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 110.5)
N/A Texas Independence Day
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 7047.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6693.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 7009.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 7047.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6693.17. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 6504.28.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 2839.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 2684.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2784.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2839.00. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 2684.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2651.19.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-23 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 140-03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-23. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147-23. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 142-14. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.
March T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.287 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off last September's high, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.287. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.090. First support is February's low crossing at 120.010. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: AprilNymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 66.39 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 60.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 64.24. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.39. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 60.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 57.90.
April heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 192.73 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.68. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 208.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 192.73. Second support is February's low crossing at 180.97.
April unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's high, the reaction high crossing at 208.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 201.22. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 208.46. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.25. Second support is February's low crossing at 165.19.
April Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.716 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 2.551. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.716. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.833. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 2.551. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.487.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at 90.46 are needed to confirm that a double bottom with January's low has been posted. Closes below February's low crossing at 88.15 would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 87.45. First resistance is the February's high crossing at 90.46. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.67. First support is February's low crossing at 88.15. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro was steady to slightly higher in quiet trading overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 122.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.86 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above February's high would open the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 126.74. First resistance is February's high crossing at 125.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is February's low crossing at 122.34. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.23.
The March British Pound was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.4160 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3816 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4160. Second high is February's high crossing at 1.4302. First support is February's low crossing at 1.3780. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.3486.
The March Swiss Franc were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 1.0589 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0732 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0908. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994. First support is February's low crossing at 1.0589. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0504.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.06 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.75. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.35. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.56. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.06.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9680 is the next upside target.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9271 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9491. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9271. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9098.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 1370.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1323.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1364.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1323.70. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70.
May silver was lower in quiet overnight trading as it appears to be forming a symmetrical triangle. Often a breakout in either direction of such a consolidation pattern leads to a trending move in the direction of the breakout. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 16.950 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted and would open the door for additional gains near-term. If May renews last week's decline, February's low crossing at 16.130 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.950. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.705. First support is February's low crossing at 16.130. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.635.
May copper was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 317.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 330.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 330.65. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 333.35. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 317.50. Second support is February's low crossing at 304.65.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 3.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.72 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.78 3/4. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 3.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.72 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.64 3/4.
May wheat was higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 4.94 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 4.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.79 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 4.94. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.51.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 8 3/4-cents at 4.93 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off December's high, the 50% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.21 3/4. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 4.75 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 4.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.21 3/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.75 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.69 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.21 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.27 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.31 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 6.09. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 10.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.18 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 10.59 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.38 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.18 1/2.
May soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 397.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 371.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 387.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 397.30. First support is the reaction low crossing at 371.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 359.50.
May soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off November's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.93. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 33.50. First support is February's low crossing at 31.61. Second support is the July-2016-low crossing at 31.37.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $1.43 at $69.95.
April hogs posted a key reversal down with today's lower close. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.14 is the next upside target. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 71.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.14. First support is the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60.
April cattle closed down $0.85 at 124.00.
April cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below reaction low crossing at 122.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 130.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 127.95. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is the reaction low crossing at 122.80. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
April Feeder cattle closed down $0.55 at $147.95.
April Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, February's low crossing at 145.63 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 153.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 153.88. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 158.73. First support is February's low crossing at 145.63. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 143.20.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.48 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 22.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed slightly lower on Monday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 13.94 is the next upside target. If May extends this month's decline, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.81 is the next downside target.
May cotton closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, January's high crossing at 84.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.