KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, March 6, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.1%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.3%0
10:00 AM ET. January Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected -1.5%; previous +1.7%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +2.9%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +2.8%)
10:00 AM ET. March IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 56.7)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 57.5)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.9M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.4M)
Refinery Runs
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 382.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +2.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 239.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +6.2%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1168.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.2%)
8:15 AM ET. February ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +180000; previous +234000)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (expected -0.3%; previous +3.0%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +2.2%; previous -0.2%)
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -55.1B; previous -53.12B)
Exports (USD) (previous 203.35B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
Imports (USD) (previous 256.47B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +2.5%)
10:00 AM ET. February Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 423.498M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.019M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 251.817M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.483M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 137.985M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.96M)
Refinery Usage (previous 87.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.872M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.582M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
3:00 PM ET. January Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +18.45B)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday following last Friday's upside reversal. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6719.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 7047.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 7009.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 7047.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6719.81. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 6504.28.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 2627.50 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 2839.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 2789.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2839.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2651.19. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2627.50 is the next downside target.
The Dow closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends last week's decline, February's low crossing at 23,360.29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,277.71 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 25,800.35. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 26,338.03. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 24,217.76. Second support is February's low crossing at 23,360.29.
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March T-bonds closed down 11/32's at 144-03.
March T-bonds closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 140-03 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-01 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 145-14. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-01. First support is February's low crossing at 142-24. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.
March T-notes closed down 50/32's at 120-205.
March T-notes closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 122-001 is the next upside target. If March resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 121.095. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.001. First support is February's low crossing at 120.010. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170.
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April crude oil closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 66.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 60.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 64.24. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.66. First support is the reaction low crossing at 60.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 57.90.
April heating oil closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, February's low crossing at 180.97 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.63. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 208.80. First support is February's low crossing at 180.97. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 176.89.
April unleaded gas closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off the late-February high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.65 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If April extends last week's decline, February's low crossing at 183.84 is the next downside target. First resistance is the late-February high crossing at 201.22. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 208.46. First support is February's low crossing at 183.84. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 179.34.
April Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.723 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 2.551 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.723. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.833. First support is February's low crossing at 2.565. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 2.551.
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The March Dollar closed higher on Monday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.67. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.46. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 88.15.
The March Euro closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low is in or near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.43 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.15. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.43. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 125.80. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.15. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 120.05.
The March British Pound closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1.4082 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 1.3486 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high high crossing at 1.4160. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4300. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.3719. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.3486.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0702 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below February's low crossing at 1.0589 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0538. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0702. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0908. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.0550. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0538.
The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 76.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.34. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.03. First support is today's low crossing at 76.92. Second support is weekly support crossing at 76.04.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of this winter's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9680 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9321 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9491. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9321. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9136.
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April gold closed lower on Monday as it consolidates below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1327.80. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1342.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1364.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.
May silver closed lower on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 17.025 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.705 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.025. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.785. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 16.160. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper closed slightly lower on Monday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 304.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 321.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 329.05. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 333.35. First support is today's low crossing at 309.55. Second support is February's low crossing at 304.65.
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May Corn closed higher 2-cents at 3.87 1/4.
May corn closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 3.91 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.75 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.88. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.91 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.79 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.75 3/4.
May wheat closed up 8-cents at 5.00.
May wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.62 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.70 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.62 3/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 11 3/4-cents at 5.45 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's high, the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.44 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.08 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.98.
May Minneapolis wheat closed up 4-cents at 6.24 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4 is the next upside target. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.57. First support is February's low crossing at 6.08. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed up 5 3/4-cents at 10.76 3/4.
May soybeans closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off January's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.31 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.53 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.31 3/4.
May soybean meal closed up $0.40 at 393.30.
May soybean meal closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 414.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 386.20 would confirm a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 404.00. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 414.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 386.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 370.50.
May soybean oil closed down 7 pts. At 32.23.
May soybean oil closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.83. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 33.50. First support is February's low crossing at 31.61. Second support is the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37.
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April hogs closed up $1.23 at $68.80.
April hogs closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 71.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.74. First support is the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60. Second support is last-August low crossing at 65.03.
April cattle closed up $1.05 at 123.23.
April cattle closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 118.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 127.95. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 121.90. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
April Feeder cattle closed up $1.60 at $146.88.
April Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 143.20 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 150.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 153.10. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 158.73. First support is the reaction low crossing at 143.20. Second support is January's low crossing at 140.25.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target. If May extends the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 128.15 is the next upside target.
May cocoa closed sharply higher on Monday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 25.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed higher on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 13.91 is the next upside target. If May renews this year's decline, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.74 is the next downside target.
May cotton closed sharply higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.