INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 6, 2018, 7:46 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, March 6, 2018   

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.3%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.2%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.3%0

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected -1.5%; previous +1.7%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.4%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +2.9%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +2.8%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

 



 

 

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 56.7)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 57.5)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.9M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.9M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.4M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Runs

 



 

 

Wednesday, March 7, 2018  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 382.9)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +2.7%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 239.4)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +6.2%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1168.5)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.2%)

 



 

 

8:15 AM ET. February ADP National Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +180000; previous +234000)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Productivity (expected -0.3%; previous +3.0%)

 



 

 

                       Unit Labor Costs (expected +2.2%; previous -0.2%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

 



 

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -55.1B; previous -53.12B)

 



 

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 203.35B)

 



 

 

                       Exports, M/M% (previous +1.8%)

 



 

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 256.47B)

 



 

 

                       Imports, M/M% (previous +2.5%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February Online Help Wanted Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 423.498M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.019M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 251.817M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.483M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 137.985M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.96M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 87.8%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.872M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.582M)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. January Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +18.45B)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 7047.25 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 6646.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 7009.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 7047.25. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 6646.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 6504.28.  



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off support marked by the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2651.19. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2737.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off the late-February high, the reaction low crossing at 2627.50 is the next downside target.First resistance is the late-February high crossing at 2789.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2839.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2627.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2530.47.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 144-01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-01 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 145-14. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-01. First support is February's low crossing at 142-14. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.  



March T-notes were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.198 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.302 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 121.095. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.302. First support is February's low crossing at 120.010. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: AprilNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 66.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 60.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 64.24. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.39. First support is the reaction low crossing at 60.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 7.90.  



April heating oil was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 180.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.59. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 208.80. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 185.00. Second support is February's low crossing at 180.97. 



April unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.72 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If April extends the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 165.19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.72. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.83. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 185.66. Second support is February's low crossing at 165.19. 



April Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.727 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 2.551. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.727. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.833. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 2.551. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.487.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.46. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.67. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.46. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 89.43. Second support is February's low crossing at 88.15.



The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.44. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 125.80. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 121.66. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.15. 



The March British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3926 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 1.3568 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4160. Second high is January's high crossing at 1.4370. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.3719. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 1.3568.  



The March Swiss Franc were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0698 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0547 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0698. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0908. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.0550. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0547.     



The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.92. First support is Monday's low crossing at 76.92. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.04.



The March Japanese Yen was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9332 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9680 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9491. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9332. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9147.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1342.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1364.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.



May silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 17.025 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted and would open the door for additional gains near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.705 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.025. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.785. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 16.160. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705. 



May copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 321.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 304.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 329.05. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 333.35. First support is Monday's low crossing at 309.55. Second support is February's low crossing at 304.65. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was steady overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.91 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.91 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.01. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 3/4.  



May wheat was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.77 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.85 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.77 1/4.    



May Kansas City Wheat closed up 11 3/4-cents at 5.45 1/2. 



May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's high, the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.44 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.08 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.98.  



May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If May extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.57. First support is February's low crossing at 6.08. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidates below weekly resistance crossing at 10.80. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.36 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.57 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.36 1/4.



May soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 373.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 414.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 404.00. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 414.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 387.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 373.60.



May soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off November's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.82. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 33.50. First support is February's low crossing at 31.61. Second support is the July-2016-low crossing at 31.37.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $1.23 at $68.80. 



April hogs closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 71.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.74. First support is the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60. Second support is last-August low crossing at 65.03.



April cattle closed up $1.05 at 123.23. 



April cattle closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 118.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 127.95. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 121.90. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.

 

April Feeder cattle closed up $1.60 at $146.88. 



April Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 143.20 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 150.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 153.10. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 158.73. First support is the reaction low crossing at 143.20. Second support is January's low crossing at 140.25.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target. If May extends the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 128.15 is the next upside target.    



May cocoa closed sharply higher on Monday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 25.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



May sugar closed higher on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 13.91 is the next upside target. If May renews this year's decline, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.74 is the next downside target. 



May cotton closed sharply higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 

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