KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, March 12, 2018
10:00 AM ET. January Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. February Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 106.93)
ETI, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)
2:00 PM ET. February Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
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The March NASDAQ 100 surged to a new record high on Friday following today's bullish jobs report. The U.S. created 313,000 new jobs in February, the biggest gain since mid-2016 and a reflection of the strongest labor market in two decades. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. With March extending this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6759.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7087.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6913.88. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6759.03.
The March S&P 500 gapped up and closed sharply higher on Friday following the release of a bullish jobs report this morning. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 2839.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 2647.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 2789.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2839.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2647.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2627.50.
The Dow gapped up and closed sharply higher on Friday as Wall Street appeared to have shaken off concerns about import tariffs on steel and aluminum to focus February's bullish jobs report that came in came in well above pre-report estimates. The jobs report signaled a muted rise to wage growth for the month, which helped to ease worries about runaway inflation. The U.S. created 313,000 new jobs in February, the biggest gain since mid-2016 and an indication of the strongest labor market in two decades. Pre-report job estimates came in at an increase of 222,000 non-farm jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,296.06 has tempered the near-term bearish outlook. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow renews the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 23,360.29 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 25,800.35. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 26,338.03. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 24,217.76. Second support is February's low crossing at 23,360.29.
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March T-bonds closed down 17/32's at 144-02.
March T-bonds closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-01 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 140-03 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 145-14. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-01. First support is February's low crossing at 142-24. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.
March T-notes closed down 50/32's at 120-205.
March T-notes closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 121-249 is the next upside target. If March resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 121.095. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.249. First support is February's low crossing at 120.010. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170.
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April crude oil closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 57.90 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 66.66 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 64.24. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.66. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 60.06. Second support is February's low crossing at 57.90.
April heating oil closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, February's low crossing at 180.97 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 190.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.10. First support is February's low crossing at 180.97. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 176.89.
April unleaded gas closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends Thursday's decline, February's low crossing at 183.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 192.80 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the late-February high crossing at 201.22. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 208.46. First support is February's low crossing at 183.84. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 179.34.
April Henry natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.678 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 2.833 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 2.793. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.833. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.678. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.565.
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The March Dollar closed lower on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.46 is the next upside target. If March extends this week's decline, February's low crossing at 88.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.67. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.46. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 89.33. Second support is February's low crossing at 88.15.
The March Euro closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.15. If March extends the rally off the March 1st low, February's high crossing at 125.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 124.62. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 125.80. First support is the March 1st low crossing at 121.66. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.15.
The March British Pound posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3913 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 1.3486 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4160. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4300. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.3719. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.3486.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0486 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0676 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0676. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0908. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0486. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0386.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 76.04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.63. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.04. First support is Monday's low crossing at 76.92. Second support is weekly support crossing at 76.04.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9367 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9680 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9491. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9367. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9179.
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April gold closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1342.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1364.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.
May silver posted a key reversal up on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 17.025 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.705 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.025. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.785. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 16.160. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper posted a key reversal up on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 304.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 317.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 317.39. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 320.72. First support is today's low crossing at 305.55. Second support is February's low crossing at 304.65.
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May Corn closed down 2 3/4-cents at 3.90 3/4.
May corn posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 4.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.79 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3.93 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.85 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.79 3/4.
May wheat closed down 9-cents at 4.90 1/4.
May wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.61 3/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 12 3/4-cents at 5.20 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off December's high, the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.44 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.77.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down 7 1/4-cents at 6.17 1/2.
May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.57. First support is February's low crossing at 6.08. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4.
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May soybeans closed down 27 1/4-cents at 10.36 3/4.
May soybeans closed sharply lower on Friday as South American weather forecast turn mildly bearish. Today's close below the the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.44 3/4 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.34 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2. First support is the the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.34. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.19.
May soybean meal closed down $11.10 at 372.30.
May soybean meal closed sharply lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.20 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 369.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 387.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 414.70. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 369.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00.
May soybean oil closed down 23 pts. At 31.61.
May soybean oil closed lower on Friday and below February's low thereby renewing the decline off November's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the late-February high crossing at 32.96. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 33.50. First support is today's low crossing at 31.43. Second support is the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37.
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April hogs closed down $0.23 at $67.85.
April hogs closed lower on Friday but remains above the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off January's high, last August's low crossing at 65.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.07. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 71.95. First support is the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60. Second support is last-August low crossing at 65.03.
April cattle closed up $1.35 at 123.13.
April cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 118.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 127.95. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 120.90. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
April Feeder cattle closed up $0.15 at $143.15.
April Feeder cattle closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 140.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.04. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 153.10. First support is January's low crossing at 140.25. Second support is December's low crossing at 139.27.
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May coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.40 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cocoa closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 25.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 13.33 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.