INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 14, 2017, 7:48 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, December 14, 2017  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November Import & Export Price Indexes

 



 

 

                       Import Prices (expected +0.7%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +1.7%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 876.4K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2086.2K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 323K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November  Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

 



 

 

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 237K; previous 236K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1908000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -52K)

 



 

 

9:30 AM ET. IMF regular press briefing

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 53.5; previous 53.8)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 54.7)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

 



 

 

                       Total Inventories (expected -0.1%; previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3695B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +2B)

 

                        

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, December 15, 2017  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December Empire State Manufacturing Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (expected 16.5; previous 19.4)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 11.5)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 20.7)

 



 

 

                       Prices Received (previous 9.2)

 



 

 

9:15 AM ET. November Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

 



 

 

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

                       Capacity Utilization % (expected 77.2%; previous 77.0%)

 



 

 

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.6)

 



 

 

4:00 PM ET. October Treasury International Capital Data

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight. Retail sales data could provide the catalyst for the next leg-up in equities while investors are watching to see whether or not the 2017 holiday shopping season got off to a solid start. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 6446.50 would renew this year's rally into record territory. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6362.18 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 6262.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 6446.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6262.85. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 6250.00.



The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight.U.S. stock futures point to another record session for the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 today. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2628.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2675.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2628.23. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2591.70.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 154-21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-07 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 154-18. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 154-21. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-07. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 150-30.  



March T-notes were lower overnight as they consolidate some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.202 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 125.065. If March renews the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 123.270 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 125.000. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 125.065. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 123.290. Second support is October's low crossing at 123.270. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS:JanuaryNymex crude oil was lower overnight. In the monthly oil market report, the IEA said the amount of crude oil on the global market rose by 170,000 barrels a day in November to 97.8 million barrels a day. The agency cited a surge in U.S. shale production and increased drilling and completion activity.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January renews the decline off November's high, the 25% retracement level of the June-November crossing at 55.11 is the next downside target. If January renews the rally off last Thursday's low, November's high crossing at 59.05. First resistance is November's high crossing at 59.05. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 60.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the June-November crossing at 55.11. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-November crossing at 53.04.



January heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 187.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 198.69 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 198.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 216.85. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 187.59. Second support is November's low crossing at 184.00.      



January unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 160.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 172.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 179.40. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 181.51. First support is the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 160.49. Second support is October's low crossing at 152.48. 



January Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 2.522 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.962 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.827. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.962. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.652. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.522.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Wednesday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.05 has confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 92.69 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 94.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 94.22. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 94.76. First support is the reaction low crossing at 92.69. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 92.26.



The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 121.49 is the next upside target. If March resumes its decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 116.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 120.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.49. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 117.97. Second support is November's low crossing at 116.49. 



The March British Pound was slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 1.3666 is the next upside target. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3307 are the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3598. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3666. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3307. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3273.  



The March Swiss Franc were lower overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates some of this week's gains. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0219 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 1.0062 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0328. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1.0103. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0062.    



The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.75 would open the door for a possible test of October's high crossing at 80.42. Closes below October's low crossing at 77.55 would renew the decline off September's high. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.75. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 80.42. First support is the late-November's low crossing at 77.58. Second support is October's low crossing at 77.55.



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.8949 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 0.8782 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9072. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.8842. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold were higher overnight as it extends the decline off November's high due to weakness in the US Dollar. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1281.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes this the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 1233.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1260.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1281.60. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1238.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 1233.90.  



March silver was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.508 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 15.626 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.508. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.873. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 15.635. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 15.626.    



March copper was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rebound off December's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.87 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 291.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 312.55. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 320.15. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 294.30. Second support is October's low crossing at 291.35. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March Corn was down a 1/2-cent at 3.48 1/2. 



March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends the decline off week's high, weekly support crossing at 3.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.57 3/4 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.57 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.65 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.47 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.  



March wheat was unchanged at $4.16 3/4. 



March wheat was unchanged overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.41 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.41. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.60 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 5-cents at 4.16 1/4. 



March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.39 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.39 1/2. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.  



March Minneapolis wheat was up 3 1/4-cents overnight at 6.15 3/4. 



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.31 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.31 1/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 6.66. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were down 5 3/4-cents at 9.73 1/2. 



January soybeans was lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 9.67 is the next downside target. First resistance December's high crossing at 10.15. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-August-decline crossing at 10.23. First support is the overnight low crossing at 9.73 1/2. Second support is November's low crossing at 9.67. 



January soybean meal was down $2.20 at 324.60. 



January soybean meal was lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 322.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 332.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 348.20. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 349.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 322.40. Second support is November's low crossing at 311.60. 



January soybean oil was down 15 pts. at 33.06. 



January soybean oil was lower overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January renews the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 32.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.77 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.77. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 35.61. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 32.80. Second support is October's low crossing at 32.47. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.28 at $66.80. 



February hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.08. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 72.25. First support is November's low crossing at 66.25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 65.43. 



February cattle closed down $0.78 at 118.38. 



February cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.56. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is Monday's low crossing at 117.58. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06.

 

January Feeder cattle closed down $1.45 at $145.65. 



January Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 144.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 150.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 147.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150.48. First support is Monday's low crossing at 144.45. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 144.16.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 11.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.64 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at 18.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, June's low crossing at 13.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.81 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.  



March cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, April's high crossing at 74.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.02 would confirm a short-term top has been posted. 

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