The talking heads are all saying that upcoming earnings reports will be great.
I don't doubt that at all. But because the chorus is so unanimous I have a hunch that the market might shrug.
Perhaps a 'sell the news' rally opportunity?
We've been seeing a lot of over selling, IMO, an over reaction to news. The "Trade war" so far, is a non-issue. We've seen a few "panics" over what the Fed may do, and the early indications are that Q1:18 GDP may be a little softer than many (myself included) have been expecting..
That being said, the underlying fundamentals have not changed. Earnings are good. Employment is good. Business is expanding on all fronts. But the market participants remain skittish. We have a loose cannon in the Whitehouse. Excluding the tariffs, he's mostly right on economics, but when the president is continually shooting off his mouth playing fast and loose with the truth, people get conservative with their money.
Long term, barring some fundamental shift, long equity holders will get paid . Short term will be a bumpy ride.
Is the trade war a trade related topic? Are tariffs related to trading? Is the person who imposed tariffs and started a trade war considered fair game for trade related discussions?
Are you afraid the lying, rich, bigot really is a lying, rich bigot?
Is Trump's "playing fast and loose with the truth," as you describe it, lying?
Oh, sorry, that last question is not trade related.
Fundamentals matter, but all the good fundamentals are known and "in the market price", in my opinion.
The trade war is the unknown.
Trump vs China last night proves my point as markets are under pressure this morning.
Let's see how the market performs when we get the good fundamentals of big earnings reports coming out soon.
In the final analysis, stock price is a function of the associated company's profitability. There is a lot of speculation over how profitable a given company will remain and there are millions of factors that affect that speculation on a day to day basis. But eventually, the stock price tracks the company's profitability.
Companies, overall, are doing pretty well, and if the upcoming earnings continue to support that, stocks will react.