INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 18, 2017, 7:56 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, December 18, 2017  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December NAHB Housing Market Index

 



 

 

                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 70)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into record high territory. The March NASDAQ 100 posted a new record high overnight on growing confidence the Republicans will succeed in getting a major tax bill passed this week. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sait that he has “no doubt” that the GOP’s tax bill will make it to the desk of President Donald Trump this week. Optimism that the Republicans will have the votes they need for passage built last week after two holdouts, Sens. Bob Corker of Tennessee and Marco Rubio of Florida, pledged their support for the tax overhaul. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. With the index ow trading in record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6388.23 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 6539.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6388.23. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6280.05.



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight and posted another record high as it extends this year's rally into record territory.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2637.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2691.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2637.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2596.89.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 154-21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-11 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154-18. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 154-21. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-11. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 150-30.  



March T-notes were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 123.270 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.197 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 125.065. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 125.000. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 125.065. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 123.290. Second support is October's low crossing at 123.270. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: JanuaryNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off last Thursday's low, November's high crossing at 59.05. If January renews the decline off November's high, the 25% retracement level of the June-November crossing at 55.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 59.05. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 60.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the June-November crossing at 55.11. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-November crossing at 53.04.



January heating oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If January resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 198.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 188.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 198.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 216.85. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 188.22. Second support is November's low crossing at 184.00.      



January unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 160.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 171.74 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 175.89. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 181.51. First support is the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 160.49. Second support is October's low crossing at 152.48. 



January Henry natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 2.522 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.909 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.758. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.909. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 2.581. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.522.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last week's high, the reaction low crossing at 92.69 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 94.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 94.22. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 94.76. First support is the reaction low crossing at 92.69. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 92.26.



The March Euro was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 121.49 is the next upside target. If March resumes its decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 116.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 120.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.49. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 117.97. Second support is November's low crossing at 116.49. 



The March British Pound was higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3317 are the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 1.3666 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3598. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3666. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3317. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3273.  



The March Swiss Franc were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0215 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 1.0062 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0328. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0103. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0062.    



The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above December's high crossing at 79.31 or below October's low crossing at 77.55 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is December's high crossing at 79.31. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 80.42. First support is the late-November's low crossing at 77.58. Second support is October's low crossing at 77.55.



The March Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.8949 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 0.8782 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9072. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141. First support is December's low crossing at 0.8840. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold were higher overnight as it extends the rebound off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1280.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 1233.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1271.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1280.80. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1238.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 1233.90.  



March silver was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.385 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 15.626 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.385. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.842. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 15.635. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 15.626.     



March copper was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 320.15 is the next downside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 302.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 314.00. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 320.15. First support is December's low crossing at 294.30. Second support is October's low crossing at 291.35. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March Corn was up 1-cent at 3.48 3/4. 



March corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 3.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.57 1/4 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.57 1/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.65 1/4. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.  



March wheat was up 4 3/4-cents at $4.23. 



March wheat was high overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.39 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off September's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.39 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.60 3/4. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 3/4-cents at 4.17 1/2. 



March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off September's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.38. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.  



March Minneapolis wheat was up 4-cents overnight at 6.24. 



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.31. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 6.66. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were up 2 1/2-cents at 9.69 3/4. 



January soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off December's high, September's low crossing at 9.47 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.88 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance December's high crossing at 10.15. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-August-decline crossing at 10.23. First support is the overnight low crossing at 9.63 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 9.47 1/2. 



January soybean meal was up $0.60 at 321.20. 



January soybean meal was slightly higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's decline, the September-November-uptrend line crossing near 318.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 329.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 329.50. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 348.20. First support is the September-November-uptrend line crossing near 318.30. Second support is November's low crossing at 311.60. 



January soybean oil was up 5 pts. at 33.21. 



January soybean oil was slightly higher overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.64 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If January renews the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 32.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.64. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 35.61. First support is December's low crossing at 32.80. Second support is October's low crossing at 32.47. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.90 at $68.52. 



February hogs closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 65.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 72.25. First support is November's low crossing at 66.25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 65.43. 



February cattle closed up $1.88 at 121.03. 



February cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.03 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off November's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.03. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is Monday's low crossing at 117.58. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06.

 

January Feeder cattle closed up $1.50 at $147.75. 



January Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 144.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.77. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 153.11. First support is Monday's low crossing at 144.45. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 144.16.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 11.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.55 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



March cocoa closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, April's low crossing at 18.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.98 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



March sugar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, June's low crossing at 13.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.  



March cotton closed higher on Friday and posted a new contract high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 76.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.68 would confirm a short-term top has been posted. 

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