NG was a bit indecisive today and closed slightly up. This morning's overall wx data I saw was slightly bearish vs yesterday.
The last 2 operational runs of the GFS are on a different planet than the ensembles.
The GFS allows mild Pacific flow to spread across the country after day 10, except for the Northeast and far Upper Midwest.
The ensembles have been taking the polar vortex/upper level low centered around the Hudson Bay(the source of the frigid air in the northern US and drifting it slightly farther south with time and with each solution.......and getting colder........even as the operational model gets milder.
The Canadian model ensembles line up closely with the GFS ensembles. Both these ensemble averages are showing run to run consistency not being shown elsewhere.
The European model ensemble average is all over the place and extremely inconsistent with 1 run showing big moderation, then the next one much more cold.
The AO looked slightly more negative today, after being less negative the previous few days but there was an extreme range wih a few members having record smashing low values and others almost neutral.
Considering the direction of the recent ensembles, the fact that the atmosphere is behaving in La Nina mode(ridge west/trough east), the recent pattern of -AO and building heights at high latitudes early this cold weather season, am leaning much more towards the colder solutions.
The huge question mark is how much Pacific energy will be able to undercut the upper level ridge, if any.
The operational GFS thinks enough to define the pattern as the dominant flow.....displacing the northern stream far enough northeast and east so that most of he country is mild by the end of week 2.
If the GFS operational runs are correct, ng could get back down to $2.5 this month. If the ensembles are on the right track, the rest of the month could generate some heavy duty HDD's and take ng back above $3.
The thing that is lacking in the forecast is snow in this very dry pattern. A deep snow pack in Winter is what allows the US to sustain the coldest temperatures. With bare ground, the Arctic blasts will moderate as they head south.
Related to this and I know you'll love it Larry:
"December 1st, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November, 2017 was +0.36 deg. C, down substantially from the October, 2017 value of +0.63 deg. C:"
"The linear temperature trend of the global average lower tropospheric temperature anomalies from January 1979 through November 2017 remains at +0.13 C/decade."
This is 1.3 Deg. C per century. This is not dangerous warming and in fact, has been beneficial and the added CO2 massively beneficial to all life.