KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, January 2, 2018
9:45 AM ET. December US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 53.9)
11:00 AM ET. December Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 54)
Wednesday, January 3, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 379.2)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -4.9%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 234.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -5.5%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1240.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -3.2%)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.4%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.1%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)
9:45 AM ET. December ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 58.1)
10:00 AM ET. November Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous +1.4%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. December Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. December ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (previous 58.2)
Prices Idx (previous 65.5)
Employment Idx (previous 59.7)
Inventories (previous 47.0)
New Orders Idx (previous 64.0)
Production Idx (previous 63.9)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast
4:00 PM ET. December Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Auto Sales Annualized (previous 17.48M)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -6.0M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.1M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.8M)
Refinery Runs
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Frida's decline. However, last Friday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6419.52 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 6343.28 is the next downside taget. If the NASDAQ 100 index resumes last year's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is December's high crossing at 6545.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6419.52. Second support is December's low crossing at 6250.00.
The March S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2669.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is December's high crossing at 2697.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2669.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2620.25.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 152-04 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March resumes the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 154-18 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 153-04. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 154-18. First support is December's low crossing at 150-14. Second support is October's low crossing at 149-07.
March T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.021 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 122.205 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.021. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.122. First support is December's low crossing at 123.125. Second support is weekly support crossing at 122.205.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: FebruaryNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it extebds this winter's rally to new highs. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 60.74. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 58.94. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.07.
February heating oil was slightly higher overnight and tested the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51 as it extends this winter's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.49 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 199.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.49.
February unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the May-2015 high crossing at 186.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 173.53 would confirm that a double top with November's high has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 181.53. Second resistance is the May-2015 high crossing at 186.01. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173.53. Second support is December's low crossing at 166.19.
February Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-tyerm. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.108 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.762 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.005. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.108. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.762. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.562.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar extended its decline off December's high overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 91.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.48. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.34. First support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 91.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 90.68.
The March Euro was higher overnight and has broken out above trading range resistance marked November's high crossing at 120.43. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 120.43 or below November's low crossing at 116.49 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is November's high crossing at 120.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.49. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.64.
The March British Pound was higher overnight and is challenging resistance marked by December's high crossing at 1.3598. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 1.3666 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3279 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3598. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3666. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3279. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3352.
The March Swiss Franc were higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0194 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.0352. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0194. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.0103.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, October's high crossing at 80.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 79.99. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 80.42. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.47. Second support is the December's low crossing at 77.52.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the December 21st reaction low, December's high cross at .8981 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 0.8782 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 0.8981. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9072. First support is December's low crossing at 0.8840. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold were higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1317.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1270.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1317.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1334.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1284.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1270.80.
March silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.325 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.261 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.325. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.261. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.635.
March copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 323.94. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.26.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
Grains will begin trading when the day session begins trading later this morning. Here is a recap of last Friday's trading range.
March Corn closed down 1-cents at 3.51.
March corn closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 3.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.55 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.55 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat closed down a 1/2-cent at 4.27 1/4.
March wheat closed fractionally lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.34 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.34 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.60 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up a 1/2-cent at 4.27 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.33 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off September's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.33 1/4. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 4 1/4-cents at 6.14 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.28 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.28 3/4. Second resistance is December's high resistance crossing at 6.34. First support is December's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed up 5 3/4-cents at 9.62 1/2.
March soybeans closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the late-August low crossing at 9.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.83 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.83 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.92 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 9.54 3/4. Second support is the late-August low crossing at 9.50.
March soybean meal closed up $1.10 at 317.20.
March soybean meal closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 315.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 327.40 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 327.40. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 315.70. Second support is November's low crossing at 315.00.
March soybean oil closed up 49 pts. At 33.20.
March soybean oil closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 32.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.37. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.21. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 32.52. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 32.44.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.05 at $75.65.
April hogs closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 78.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 76.32. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 78.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.45. Second support is December's low crossing at 70.97.
February cattle closed down $0.70 at 121.55.
February cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 118.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.69. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is December's low crossing at 117.58. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.45 at $142.68.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 137.19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.56. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 149.23. First support is December's low crossing at 138.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 137.19.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.65 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.30 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 11.34 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 17.91 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 15.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed slightly lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 80.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.29 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted.