KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, January 8, 2018
10:00 AM ET. December Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 135.88)
ETI, Y/Y% (previous +4.7%)
3:00 PM ET. November Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +20.52B)
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The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday as it posted a new record high for the fourth day in a row to start the new year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. This year's rally into record territory makes upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6376.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 6656.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6376.47. Second support is December's low crossing at 6250.00.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Friday as it extended this winter's rally into record territory. The last time the S&P 500 index opened the year with four straight records was in 1964, when it closed higher in the first six sessions of that year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2682.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2734.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2682.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2629.71.
The Dow closed higher for the fourth day in a row on Friday as it extended this year's rally to record highs. The December jobs report indicated that the improvements in the labor market continued, while not being sufficiently strong that the Federal Reserve would accelerate its timeline for raising interest rates.This week's rally was underpinned by the recently passed corporate tax-cut package, rising commodity prices, and robust corporate earnings. Solid economic data and low bond yields have also been cited as contributing factors. The U.S. created 148,000 jobs in December. This was the slowest pace in three months, and below the 198,000 increase that economists had predicted. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% for the third straight month. Worker pay increased 2.5% from December 2016 to December 2017, up from 2.4% in the prior month. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. With the Dow now trading into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,704.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 25,186.86. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,704.75. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 24,101.48.
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March T-bonds closed down 12/32's at 151-30.
March T-bonds closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 149-07 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 154-18 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 154-18. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 154-21. First support is December's low crossing at 150-18. Second support is October's low crossing at 149-07.
March T-notes closed down 45/32's at 123-170.
March T-notes closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 122.205 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.303 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.303. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.105. First support is December's low crossing at 123.125. Second support is weekly support crossing at 122.205.
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February crude oil closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 62.21. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.16. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.78.
February heating oil closed lower on Friday as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 203.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.20.
February unleaded gas closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the May-2015 high crossing at 186.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 174.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 183.14. Second resistance is the May-2015 high crossing at 186.01. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174.40. Second support is December's low crossing at 166.19.
February Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.779 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 3.210 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.097. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.210. First support is December's low crossing at 2.562. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.522.
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The March Dollar closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends this week's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 91.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.77. First support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 91.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 90.68.
The March Euro closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at 122.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 121.40. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 122.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.24. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.47.
The March British Pound closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 1.3695 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3475 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3646. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3695. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3475. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3374.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0198 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 1.0412 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0365. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 1.0412. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0264. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0198.
The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at 82.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 82.71. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.54. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.54.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 0.8840 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off the December 21st low, December's high crossing at 0.8981 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.9073. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141. First support is December's low crossing at 0.8840. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782.
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February gold posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher price are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1334.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1278.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1327.30. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1334.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1300.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1278.40.
March silver closed lower on Friday as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.325. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 17.485 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.430 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.325. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 17.485. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.878. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.430.
March copper closed lower on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 316.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-13 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 316.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 313.60.
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March Corn closed up a 1/4-cent at 3.51 1/4.
March corn closed fractionally higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Trading is likely to remain locked in a narrow trading range ahead of next Friday's January crop report, which will give the final yield report for corn along with the projected carryover for the 2017/2018 year. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.54 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.54 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat closed down 3-cents at 4.31.
March wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.23 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.33 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.33 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.60 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 2 1/4-cents at 4.37 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low but remain above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.32 1/2. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.23 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4.41 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 1-cents at 6.26 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.28 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.28 1/2. Second resistance is December's high resistance crossing at 6.34. First support is December's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
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March soybeans closed up 2-cents at 9.69 3/4.
March soybeans closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.74 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the late-August low crossing at 9.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.74 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.90. First support is December's low crossing at 9.54 3/4. Second support is the late-August low crossing at 9.50.
March soybean meal closed up $1.40 at 321.20.
March soybean meal closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 323.00 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 315.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 323.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 331.20. First support is Thursber's low crossing at 315.50. Second support is November's low crossing at 315.00.
March soybean oil closed down 13 pts. At 33.74.
March soybean oil closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 33.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 34.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.14. First support is December's low crossing at 32.52. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 32.44.
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February hogs closed up $0.05 at $71.43.
February hogs closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 73.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 72.45. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 73.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.28. Second support is December's low crossing at 66.25.
February cattle closed down $3.00 at 119.25.
February cattle closed limit down on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 117.58. If February renews the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.68. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is December's low crossing at 117.58. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06.
March Feeder cattle closed down $3.58 at $141.98.
March Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Friday following yesterday's key reversal down. Today's close below the 10-day moving average crossing at 142.18 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 138.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.92 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.92. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. First support is today's low crossing at 141.15. Second support is December's low crossing at 138.30.
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March coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.30 is the next upside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 17.91 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 20.16 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 15.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton posted a key reversal down on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.38 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 80.67 is the next upside target.