INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 11, 2018, 7:40 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, January 11, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 101.3K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 160.8K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 131K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December PPI

 



 

 

                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 245K; previous 250K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1914000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -37K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3126B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -206B)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, January 12, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December CPI

 



 

 

                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +3.9%)

 



 

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.2%)

 



 

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.7%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

 



 

 

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +1.0%)

 



 

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

 



 

 

                       Total Inventories (expected +0.4%; previous -0.1%)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 



 

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 



 

 

Monday, January 15, 2018   

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S: Martin Luther King Day. Financial markets closed

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it rebounds from its first loss of the year with Wednesday's trade. Some Investors are staying on the sidelines ahead of the kickoff to earnings season.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 index extends this winter's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6533.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6707.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6592.95. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6533.01.  



The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it recovers from Wednesday's loss. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2701.89 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2759.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2722.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2701.89.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES:March T-bonds were higher overnight after a Chinese official down played a report that his country was considering cutting back on U.S. debt, which rattled markets this week. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 145-26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 153-04. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 149-03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 145-26.  



March T-notes were higher overnight as they consolidate some of this week's sharp decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.232 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 122.205 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.232. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.075. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 122.225. Second support is weekly support crossing at 122.205. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: FebruaryNymex crude oil was higher overnight and is challenging the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11 as it extends this winter's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.21. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.86. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.94.



February heating oil was slightly higher overnight and trading above the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.59.      



February unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the May-2015 high crossing at 186.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 175.59 would confirm that a double top with November's high has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 185.13. Second resistance is the May-2015 high crossing at 186.01. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 175.59. Second support is December's low crossing at 166.19. 



February Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.108 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.804 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.108. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.225. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.804. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.562.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rebound off this year's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.49 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 91.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.49. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.08. First support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 91.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 90.68.



The March Euro was slightly lower overnight as it test support marked by the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, September's high crossing at 122.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 121.40. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 122.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.95. 



The March British Pound was lower overnight and trading below initial support marked by the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3499 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 1.3666 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1.3646. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3666. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3499. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3398.  



The March Swiss Franc were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0207 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0365. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0207. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.0103.     



The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and could lead to additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41 is the next upside target.First resistance is January's high crossing at 81.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.70.



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March this week's rally, November's high crossing at 0.9073 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.8912 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.9073. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141. First support is December's low crossing at 0.8840. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1334.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1292.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1334.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1349.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1315.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1292.50.



March silver was slightly higher overnight. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.686 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.325. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.736. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.686. 



March copper was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.71 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.71. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.16. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as trading is likely to be subdued ahead of Friday's monthly supply-demand report. Estimates for this week's export sales report for corn due out later morning for the week ending January 4 range between 13.8 million and 29.5 million bushels. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off last week's high, December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32. 



March wheat was slightly lower overnight in quiet pre-report trading as traders await Friday's USDA supply-demand report for near-term direction.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.37 are needed to confirm that an important low has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.26 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.37. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.43. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.    



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 1/2-cents at 4.40 1/2. 



March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.32. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.26 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 4.41 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.26 3/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.   



March Minneapolis wheat was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 6.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.20 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 6.34. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is December's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the late-August low crossing at 9.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.66 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.66 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.87 1/4. First support is the late-August low crossing at 9.50. Second support is August's low crossing at 9.37 1/2.



March soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 315.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.00 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 331.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 315.40. Second support is November's low crossing at 315.00.



March soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.03 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.36 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.03. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 34.54. First support is December's low crossing at 32.52. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 32.44. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $0.65 at $72.53. 



February hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 76.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 73.68. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 76.91. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 71.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.99. 



February cattle closed down $0.80 at 116.88. 



February cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extended this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.44 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.44. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.18. First support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 112.35.

 

March Feeder cattle closed down $0.53 at $142.23. 



March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 138.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.29 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.29. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 140.12. Second support is December's low crossing at 138.30.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.30 is the next upside target. 



March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 20.04 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 17.91 is the next downside target. 



March sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 15.49 is the next upside target. 



March cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 80.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.14 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. 

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