why didn't my fellow trader talk me out of selling my Jan puts? They almost doubled today$
I told you that the COT report gave me a sell signal and that will not change until the next report comes out tomorrow.
if you want me to send you the data I was looking at, you can send me an email
and I will reply with an excel spread sheet.
I guess it is no big deal for me to just post it here. My buy/sell signal for Gold is as follows. You take the SHORTS for commercials in Gold and DIVIDE that number by the longs commercials in Gold and when the number is ABOVE 3.10 you get a sell signal or overbought signal. When it is BELOW 1.90 you get a BUY or oversold signal. As an example, for the last week, you have 363,372 divided by 116,831 and you get 3.11. This signal has been as low as 0.40, but this was literally back when Gold was making the historic lows around $255 and the commercial longs outnumbered the commercial shorts, something that rarely happens. it also it a high just above 5.00, but this was around the time it hit $400 in 2004 and 100% of the commercials thought that sell gold at $400 was a dream and that gold would NEVER get over $400. Remember those days? Traders would post all the time. how we would NEVER get past $400 cause everyone would sell $400. Kind of like Everyone will sell oil when it hits $50 or $100 etc,,,,,, Anyway, for normal trading times the 1.90/3.10 levels are spots to be aware of and as every trader knows, you never ever buy or sell based on ONE indicator. you a couple indicators and most important a chart pattern that tells you to buy/sell along with it. In this case the indicator was at a sell and Mike had a chart pattern that also said sell to back it up, so down we go but we have dropped $50 since last Tuesday when the COT report was taken.