A Serene August 8th to you!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!
Rains continue to march south and east. Big dent in TX drought coming up!
Mostly dry now Upper Midwest back to N/C Plains for the next 5 days.
The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.
Day 1 below:
Day 2 below:
Day 3 below:
Days 4-5 below:
Days 6-7 below:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Excessive Rainfall threat. Shifts slowly east and south, then southwest.
|Current Day 1 Forecast|
|Current Day 2 Forecast|
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk. Hit the map for full screen. Not very high-weak jet stream.
|Current Day 1 Outlook|
| Current Day 2 Outlook|
| Current Day 3 Outlook|
| Current Day 4-8 Outlook|
High Temperatures today and Thursday.
Great in the Great Lakes and surrounding areas.
Hot along all the Coasts.
Record smashing heat along the West Coast up to Canada!!
Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Humid with southerly winds over the eastern and southern parts of the country.
Drier air N.Plains/U.Midwest.
Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Feeling sultry over the much of the country. NIce N.PLains/Upper Midwest.
Highs days 3-7.
Not as hot as recently still very warm/hot in some places. Great in the Great Lakes/Northeast.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year? We have now past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.
Above average West/Rockies to N.Plains and eventually Upper Midwest. A bit below S.Plains.
High temperature departures:
Low Temperature Departures:
Weather system from Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to Northeast. High pressure Southeast........pumping in the heat and Gulf moisture on its backside.
Here is the latest radar image:
Satellite picture. Clouds from the Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to S.Plains.
Rains the past 24 hours. Less than predicted in the Cornbelt.
Missouri to S.Plains still in bad shape....but they got some nice rains. TX/OK to get more.
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in white.
In 5+ days:
Towards the end of week 2, the last 0z run of the Canadian model ensembles think that the heat ridge could be anywhere. Just over half of the members think there could be an upper level trough in the Upper Midwest or Northeast.................great uncertainty!!
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 23, 2018 00UTC
Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4. Hot West! Changing elsewhere.
Most 12z Canadian Model ensemble members like the placement of the heat ridge in the S.Plains........and a trough in the Northeast..........but not universal agreement.
384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 24, 2018 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
The 12z European(control) model has a strong system coming thru early in week 2 with some pretty cool air for the Midwest/Northeast. Then another one late in week 2 that would have a lot of rain for the Plains/Midwest. The maps below go from days 10-15 at 24 hour intervals.
The maps below are from the NWS extended outlooks. The week 2 period is very uncertain right now, partly because of the very active Eastern Pacific which could change initial conditions that are fed into computer forecast models. Changes can amplify downstream with time and greatly effect the weather in North America.
The forecasts below have plenty of above normal temperatures and there is normal to above normal rain in many places. Todays maps are a bit drier in the N/C Plains to Upper Midwest.
Tomorrows forecast could be different.
|6-10 day Temperature Probability|
| Precipitation Probability|
|8-14 day Temperature Probability|
| Precipitation Probability|
Extreme weather days 3-7:
Heat days 3/4 N.Plains.
Heavy rains TX/OK(welcomed) and Mid Atlantic Coast(not welcomed).
Latest 18z operational GFS is still looking on the bearish side........no dome in the Midwest and ample to abundant rains most places(though it might be on the dry side for the Northwest sections of the main growing region).
Weather maps in 2 weeks...Upper level ridge in the Southeast, upper level trough Upper Midwest to Northeast.
| gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht|| gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht|
| gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick|| gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht|
Total rains thru 2 weeks below:
Forecast Hour: 360
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_360_precip_ptot.gif