Weather Wednesday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 9:40 a.m.

A Serene August 8th to you!


 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!

Rains continue to march south and east.  Big dent in TX drought coming up!

Mostly dry now Upper Midwest back to N/C Plains for the next 5 days.

 The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 9:41 a.m.
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Excessive Rainfall threat. Shifts slowly east and south, then southwest.



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 9:43 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen.  Not very high-weak jet stream. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 9:47 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Thursday.

 Great in the Great Lakes and surrounding areas.

Hot along all the Coasts.

Record smashing heat along the West Coast up to Canada!!

                    

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 9:49 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  Humid with southerly winds over the eastern  and southern parts of the country.

Drier air N.Plains/U.Midwest.

Current Dew Points

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 9:49 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Feeling sultry over the much of the country. NIce N.PLains/Upper Midwest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8Ow1nlafOg


Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.

Not as hot as recently still very warm/hot in some places.  Great in the Great Lakes/Northeast.http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 9:56 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We have now past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

Above average West/Rockies to N.Plains and eventually Upper Midwest.  A bit below S.Plains.



High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif




Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 9:57 a.m.
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Weather system from Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to Northeast. High pressure Southeast........pumping in the heat and Gulf moisture on its backside.


https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 9:58 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image:



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 9:58 a.m.
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Satellite picture. Clouds from the Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to  S.Plains.


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 10 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.    Less than predicted in the Cornbelt. 


By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 10:01 a.m.
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Missouri  to S.Plains still in bad shape....but they got some nice rains. TX/OK to get more.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 10:01 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 10:02 a.m.
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Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 10:03 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    


Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 10:13 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Today:  Record smashing heat along the West Coast!  Pleasant Great Lakes.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Heat is moving around.......spews east briefly, N.Plains/Northeast.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days   Hot West again!!!!  Some heat spills east to northeast to N.PLains/Northeast.
NCEP Ensemble t = 240 hour forecast product


Day 15  Hot West to N.Plains.............How much moves east?NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


Towards the end of week 2, the last 0z run of the Canadian model ensembles think that the heat ridge could be anywhere. Just over half of the members think there could be an upper level trough in the Upper Midwest or Northeast.................great uncertainty!!

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 23, 2018 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 10:15 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4. Hot West! Changing elsewhere.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 1:30 p.m.
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Most 12z Canadian Model ensemble members like the placement of the heat ridge in the S.Plains........and a trough in the Northeast..........but not universal agreement.

384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 24, 2018 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)


The 12z European(control) model has a strong system coming thru early in week 2 with some pretty cool air for the Midwest/Northeast. Then another one late in week 2 that would have a lot of rain for the Plains/Midwest.  The maps below go from days 10-15 at 24 hour intervals.
















 


By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 3:40 p.m.
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The maps below are from the NWS extended outlooks. The week 2 period is very uncertain right now, partly because of the very active Eastern Pacific which could change initial conditions that are fed into computer forecast models.  Changes can amplify downstream with time and greatly effect the weather in North America. 

The forecasts below have plenty of above normal temperatures and there is normal to above normal rain in many places. Todays maps are a bit drier in the N/C Plains to Upper Midwest.

Tomorrows forecast could be different. 



6-10 day Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  



8-14 day Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 3:43 p.m.
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Extreme weather days 3-7:

Heat days 3/4 N.Plains.

Heavy rains TX/OK(welcomed) and Mid Atlantic Coast(not welcomed).




http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 7:37 p.m.
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Latest 18z operational GFS is still looking on the bearish side........no dome in the Midwest and ample to abundant rains most places(though it might be on the dry side for the Northwest sections of the main growing region).

Weather maps in 2 weeks...Upper level ridge in the Southeast, upper level trough Upper Midwest to Northeast. 

            

      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif

Total rains thru 2 weeks below:

Forecast Hour:  360
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_360_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_namer_360_precip_ptot.gif