The liquid energies are getting crushed today. Crude is currently down over $2/barrel! Unleaded down almost 8c.
"Oil prices held on to losses late=morning Wednesday after the Energy Information Administration reported that domestic crude supplies declined by 1.351 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 3. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had estimated a fall of 2.3 million barrels in the week.Gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.9 million barrels for the week, while distillate stockpiles added 1.2 million barrels, according to the EIA."
Crude has been holding the longer term uptrend. Will that be broken?
Crude 3 month chart
Crude1year chart below
Crude 5 year chart below
Crude10 year chart below
Unleaded Gasoline Price Charts(not as strong as crude or heating oil): Uptrend on longer term price chart......bull flag short term(or top?) Getting hammered today.
5 year........are we headed back to the highs?
Here are the gas prices at the pump:
Weekly US ending stocks of crude oil. Peaked in March 2017 and have been falling sharply since then. Now the lowest in 3.5 years:
Weekly ending stocks for unleaded gasoline. Barely peaked in Feb 2017 but have not dropped much...........similar this month to July 2017...still fairly high:
Weekly US ending stocks for distillate fuel oil(heating oil-especially used in the Northeast). Peaked in Feb 2017 and have PLUNGED to the lowest in 4 years and almost the lowest in 10 years:
Release Date: August 7, 2018
Global liquid fuels
Even if crude stays at the price it is at, a long roll will net you about $2k a month on 1 contract.
By metmike -
Good point Jim!
Crude for the front month is priced higher than back months...........this is an inverted price structure and considered bullish. Contango (sounds like a Spanish dance).
Normal backwardation is when prices are higher in the back months.
"Inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes both diesel and home heating oil, were 117.7 million barrels at the end of June, the lowest end-of-June level since 2004. Distillate inventories have generally been lower than the previous five-year (2013–2017) average throughout 2018. Relatively low inventory levels reflect growth in distillate consumption during 2018 that has not been fully offset by increased domestic refinery production or by lower net exports of distillate."
| By Phil Flynn|
August 9, 2018
"Even in long-term bull markets, you are going to have a day like Wednesday. Crude oil and products crashed down to major support as it was hit with a confluence of headlines and bearish weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Fears of the impact of sanctions on China, Iran, Russia and Turkey did not help and another big drop in U.S. gasoline demand has some worried that U.S. consumers were showing resistance to higher pump prices. The reality is that in August, we do start to see a wind down in gas consumption, and petroleum, in general, is seasonally weak."