INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 9, 2018, 7:53 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, August 9, 2018   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 672.9K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1020.4K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 440.1K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. July PPI

 



 

 

                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 218K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +1K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1724000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -23K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2308B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +35B)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. July Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, August 10, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. July Real Earnings

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. July CPI

 



 

 

                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +3.0%; previous +2.9%)

 



 

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.3%; previous +2.3%)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 



 

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. July Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt

 



 

 

Monday, August 13, 2018  

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S: Victory Day in Rhode Island

 



 

 

Tuesday, August 14, 2018  

 



 

 

6:00 AM ET. July NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

 



 

 

                       Small Business Idx (previous 107.2)

 



 

 

7:45 PM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W%

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M%

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. July Import & Export Price Indexes

 



 

 

                       Import Prices (previous -0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous -0.8%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Q2 Household Debt and Credit Report

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight as investors try to overlook disputes between China and the U.S. to focus on mostly strong corporate earnings and a healthy economic backdrop. A number of employment reports on the labor market, U.S. inventories and inflation are due to be released later this morning, which may provide more insight about the state of the economy as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq remain within sight of fresh all-time highs.Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Monday's low, July's high crossing at 7530.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 7166.75 would confirm a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is July's high crossing at 7530.00. Second resistance isunknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 7166.75. Second support is June's low crossing at 6956.00.    



The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, January's high crossing at 2885.30 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 2791.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2863.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2885.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2824.81. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2784.56.      



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 139-11 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-28. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 141-27. Second support is May's low crossing at 139-11.  



September T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.252 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 118.295 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.252. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 120.200. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.    



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: SeptemberNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 62.99 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 69.92 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction  high crossing at 70.43. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 72.98. First support is July's low crossing at 66.29. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.99.    



September heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 218.57 would renew the rally off July's low. Closes below last-Thursday's low would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of July's low crossing at 204.74. First resistance is July's high crossing at 223.88. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.73. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.85.



September unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at 197.15 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 210.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 215.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 217.41. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 196.03. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 189.92.



September Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.973 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.785 would confirm a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.952. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.973. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.843. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.785.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight while extending the May-July trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the late-July low, July's high crossing at 95.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 93.87 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during August. From a broad perspective, closes above July's high crossing at 95.44 or below June's low crossing at 92.76 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is July's high crossing at 95.44. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is July's low crossing at 99.44. Second support is June's low crossing at 92.76.  



The September Euro was lower overnight while extending the May-July trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 117.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. From a broad perspective, closes above June's high crossing at 119.40 or below June's low crossing at 115.82 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is July's high crossing at 118.52. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 119.40. First support is Monday's low crossing at 115.64. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. 



The September British Pound was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 1.2819 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3102 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3102. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3233. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2862. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 1.2819.



The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the May-August trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Tuesday's, July's low crossing at 0.9984 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0174 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is July's low crossing at 0.9984. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880. 



The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 77.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.36. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is July's low crossing at 75.31. Second support is June's low crossing at 74.80.  



The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9065 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.8943 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9065. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9198. First support is July's low crossing at 0.8867. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 0.8805. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1226.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1226.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1259.30. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1207.40. Second support is the 87% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90.



September silver was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 15.700 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the July-2017 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15.145 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.700. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.059. First support is July's low crossing at 15.185. Second support is the July-2017 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15.145. 



September copper was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 286.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, July's low crossing at 267.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 286.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 294.30. First support is July's low crossing at 267.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.73 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.99. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.83. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.73 3/4.  



December wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.53 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off July's low, the July-2017 high crossing at 6.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 6.13. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at 6.22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.79 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.53.        



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 1/2-cents at 6.10 3/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the July-2017 high crossing at 6.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.57 1/4 would confirms that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6.26. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at 6.42. First support is 10-day moving average crossing at 5.89 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.57 1/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6.56. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.30 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.99.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.42 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.81 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.81 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.



December soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 348.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 330.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 338.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 348.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 330.40. Second support is July's low crossing at 321.50.  



December soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.60 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 28.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.60. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 31.29. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 28.39. Second support is July's low crossing at 29.78. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed down $1.58 at $48.40. 



October hogs gapped down and closed lower on Wednesday as it extended this summer's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 46.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.74 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.74. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 55.98. First support is today's low crossing at 48.05. Second support is weekly support crossing at 46.24.  



October cattle closed up $0.07 at 111.00. 



October cattle close slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 108.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline high crossing at 113.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 112.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 108.18. Second support is July's low crossing at 105.48.  

 

August Feeder cattle closed up $0.80 at $150.65. 



August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 149.71 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, is February's high crossing at 155.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 154.93. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 155.98. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 149.71. Second support is July's low crossing at 147.82.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 11.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 10.56 is the next downside target.      



September cocoa closed unchanged on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this summer's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 19.86 is the next downside target. 



October sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. 



October cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends decline off July's high, the reaction low crossing at 86.90 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 92.48 is the next upside target. 

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 9:37 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!