Natural Gas Thursday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:21 a.m.

For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning:

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:23 a.m.
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By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:26 a.m.
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Storage is LOW for this time of year!! This is why the temperature forecast matters. 

Storage is just below the  bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:27 a.m.
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These were the temperatures for the 7 day period for that last EIA in the West to TX..........much cooler than the previous week, especially Midwest..... so a bigger injection was expected.


            With 3 bullish(low) injections in a row and low storage, expectations and reactions to this coming  Thursday's EIA number will be a huge factor for trading this week. 

One way to estimate that number is to look at temperatures that occurred during the 7 day period covered for this next report and compare them to the temps from the last report(above) which featured a +35 bcf injection. Here they are:



By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:32 a.m.
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+46 BCF! -Neutral

     From NGI:  EIA Reports Near-Target 46 Bcf Injection; September Natural Gas Trades Sideways                                                                                                                         

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
5-year average
Region08/03/1807/27/18net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East575  552  23  23   670  -14.2  672  -14.4  
Midwest579  552  27  27   769  -24.7  732  -20.9  
Mountain148  146  2  2   202  -26.7  180  -17.8  
Pacific245  250  -5  -5   290  -15.5  316  -22.5  
South Central807  808  -1  -1   1,095  -26.3  1,026  -21.3  
   Salt200  203  -3  -3   291  -31.3  275  -27.3  
   Nonsalt607  604  3  3   804  -24.5  751  -19.2  
Total2,354  2,308  46  46   3,025  -22.2  2,926  -19.5  

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:39 a.m.
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Natural gas breaking out to the upside. Got some tough resistance ahead but storage data is bullish(expectations for big increases in  supplies coming soon are bearish):

Natural gas 3 months

Naturalgas 1 year below

Naturalgas 5 years below


Naturalgas10years below                
By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:40 a.m.
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Seasonals based on historical prices.

Erdgas Future saisonal

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:40 a.m.
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Short-Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration:


            Release Date: August 7, 2018 |             Next Release Date: September 11, 2018 |

Natural Gas


  • EIA estimates dry natural gas production was 81.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in July, up 0.4 Bcf/d from June. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.1 Bcf/d in 2018, up by 7.5 Bcf/d from 2017 and establishing a new record high. EIA expects natural gas production will rise again in 2019 to 84.1 Bcf/d. 
  • EIA forecasts that pipeline exports of natural gas, which averaged 6.7 Bcf/d in 2017, will average 7.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and 8.5 Bcf/d in 2019. Increasing natural gas production in the United States and the completion of new pipelines that carry U.S. natural gas to demand centers in Mexico contribute to the expected increase. In June, two new pipelines in Mexico were placed in service that will distribute natural gas from the United States to destinations in Mexico. In addition, EIA forecasts exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rise from 1.9 Bcf/d in 2017 to 3.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and to 5.1 Bcf/d in 2019. This growth contributes to U.S. net exports of natural gas averaging 2.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and 5.4 Bcf/d in 2019, compared with 0.3 Bcf/d in 2017. 
  • EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.96/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.10/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for November 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending August 2, 2018, suggest a range of $2.33/MMBtu to $3.48/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for November Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level. 
By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 7:08 p.m.
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Thursday closing comments from Natural Gas Intelligence:


Late Rally Pushes September Natural Gas Back in Black for Sixth Straight Day; Spot Gas Mixed

     5:28 PM    

With help from some late-session buying, September natural gas rallied for a sixth straight day  against a backdrop of an on-target storage injection and weather forecasts calling for cooler temperatures beginning late next week. The Nymex September traded sideways throughout the day before going on to settle at $2.955, up six-tenths of a cent.