For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning:
Storage is LOW for this time of year!! This is why the temperature forecast matters.
Storage is just below the bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!
These were the temperatures for the 7 day period for that last EIA report.......hot in the West to TX..........much cooler than the previous week, especially Midwest..... so a bigger injection was expected.
With 3 bullish(low) injections in a row and low storage, expectations and reactions to this coming Thursday's EIA number will be a huge factor for trading this week.
One way to estimate that number is to look at temperatures that occurred during the 7 day period covered for this next report and compare them to the temps from the last report(above) which featured a +35 bcf injection. Here they are:
+46 BCF! -Neutral
|Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN|
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
|Region||08/03/18||07/27/18||net change||implied flow||Bcf||% change||Bcf||% change|
Natural gas breaking out to the upside. Got some tough resistance ahead but storage data is bullish(expectations for big increases in supplies coming soon are bearish):
|Natural gas 3 months|
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
Seasonals based on historical prices.
Release Date: August 7, 2018 | Next Release Date: September 11, 2018 |
Thursday closing comments from Natural Gas Intelligence:
With help from some late-session buying, September natural gas rallied for a sixth straight day against a backdrop of an on-target storage injection and weather forecasts calling for cooler temperatures beginning late next week. The Nymex September traded sideways throughout the day before going on to settle at $2.955, up six-tenths of a cent.