For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/10451/
The forecast over the weekend turned cooler.
From Natural Gas Intelligence Monday Morning:
September Set to Open Lower on Cooler Outlooks, Returning Production
8:56 AM
September natural gas prices were set to open 3.4 cents lower at $2.91 Monday as traders looked to cooler weather ahead and returning production to help bring the market back into balance.
Storage is LOW for this time of year!! This is why the temperature forecast matters.
Storage is just below the bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!
EIA storage report from yesterday:
+46 BCF! -Neutral
From NGI: EIA Reports Near-Target 46 Bcf Injection; September Natural Gas Trades Sideways
Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (08/03/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Region | 08/03/18 | 07/27/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
East | 575 | 552 | 23 | 23 | 670 | -14.2 | 672 | -14.4 | |||||||||||||||||
Midwest | 579 | 552 | 27 | 27 | 769 | -24.7 | 732 | -20.9 | |||||||||||||||||
Mountain | 148 | 146 | 2 | 2 | 202 | -26.7 | 180 | -17.8 | |||||||||||||||||
Pacific | 245 | 250 | -5 | -5 | 290 | -15.5 | 316 | -22.5 | |||||||||||||||||
South Central | 807 | 808 | -1 | -1 | 1,095 | -26.3 | 1,026 | -21.3 | |||||||||||||||||
Salt | 200 | 203 | -3 | -3 | 291 | -31.3 | 275 | -27.3 | |||||||||||||||||
Nonsalt | 607 | 604 | 3 | 3 | 804 | -24.5 | 751 | -19.2 | |||||||||||||||||
Total | 2,354 | 2,308 | 46 | 46 | 3,025 | -22.2 | 2,926 | -19 |
The 7 day period below covered the period on yesterday's report with +46 bcf injected. The next 7 day period will end, Friday 8-10-2018.
Temperatures for the 7 day period below, ending August 10th-our wonderful wedding anniversary) are the period that corresponds to this Thursday's EIA storage report:
If temps on the first 2 maps below caused a +46 BCF injection. Then what will the injection be from the warmer, 2 maps that follow below:
Maps for next report below:
Natural gas had a short term break out but has hit some tough resistance and some cooler forecasts(less bullish weather)ahead. Storage data last Thursday was neutral after being bullish the previous 3 weeks(expectations for big increases in supplies coming soon are potentially bearish down the road....we will see):
Natural gas 3 months |
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
Naturalgas10years below |
Seasonals based on historical prices.
Now, analysts are weighing the possibility that moderate temperatures could cool the recent rally. "The short-term temperature views are gradually shifting away from above normal and toward below normal temperature trends," Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note to clients.
The above is from this morning's DJ news preopening NG report. A forecast I saw was a pretty decent amount cooler early week 2 though it was slightly warmer late in week 2. The net was slightly cooler for the 2 weeks overall with the cooling centered in the middle 1/3 of the US. It still looks plenty hot in both the NE and NW US.
The ONLY way NG even comes close to last years storage is if there are injections up to Dec 1st. Strong injections.