Natural Gas Monday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 12, 2018, 11:36 p.m.

For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/10451/

The forecast over the weekend turned cooler.


      From Natural Gas Intelligence Monday Morning:

September Set to Open Lower on Cooler Outlooks, Returning Production

     8:56 AM    

September natural gas prices were set to open 3.4 cents lower at $2.91 Monday as traders looked to cooler weather ahead and returning production to help bring the market back into balance.

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 12, 2018, 11:36 p.m.
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Storage is LOW for this time of year!! This is why the temperature forecast matters. 

Storage is just below the  bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

By metmike - Aug. 12, 2018, 11:37 p.m.
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EIA storage report from yesterday:

+46 BCF! -Neutral

     From NGI:  EIA Reports Near-Target 46 Bcf Injection; September Natural Gas Trades Sideways                                                                                                                         

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(08/03/17)
5-year average
(2013-17) 
Region08/03/1807/27/18net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East575  552  23  23   670  -14.2  672  -14.4  
Midwest579  552  27  27   769  -24.7  732  -20.9  
Mountain148  146  2  2   202  -26.7  180  -17.8  
Pacific245  250  -5  -5   290  -15.5  316  -22.5  
South Central807  808  -1  -1   1,095  -26.3  1,026  -21.3  
   Salt200  203  -3  -3   291  -31.3  275  -27.3  
   Nonsalt607  604  3  3   804  -24.5  751  -19.2  
Total2,354  2,308  46  46   3,025  -22.2  2,926  -19

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Aug. 12, 2018, 11:38 p.m.
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The 7 day period below covered the period on yesterday's report with +46 bcf injected. The next 7 day period will end, Friday 8-10-2018.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20180803.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Aug. 12, 2018, 11:41 p.m.
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Temperatures for the 7 day period below, ending August 10th-our wonderful wedding anniversary)  are the period that corresponds to this Thursday's EIA storage report:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20180810.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Aug. 12, 2018, 11:43 p.m.
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If temps on the first 2 maps below caused a +46 BCF injection. Then what will the injection be from the warmer, 2 maps that follow below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20180803.7day.mean.F.gif

Maps for next report below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20180810.7day.mean.F.gif      









By metmike - Aug. 12, 2018, 11:49 p.m.
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Natural gas had a short term break out but has hit some tough resistance and some cooler forecasts(less bullish weather)ahead. Storage data last Thursday was neutral after being bullish the previous 3 weeks(expectations for big increases in  supplies coming soon are potentially bearish down the road....we will see):

Natural gas 3 months
         


Naturalgas 1 year below

Naturalgas 5 years below

                   

Naturalgas10years below                
                   
By metmike - Aug. 12, 2018, 11:49 p.m.
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Seasonals based on historical prices.

Erdgas Future saisonal

By WxFollower - Aug. 13, 2018, 2:57 p.m.
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Now, analysts are weighing the possibility that moderate temperatures could 
cool the recent rally.  
 
  "The short-term temperature views are gradually shifting away from above 
normal and toward below normal temperature trends," Jim Ritterbusch, president 
of Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note to clients.  

 The above is from this morning's DJ news preopening NG report. A forecast I saw was a pretty decent amount cooler early week 2 though it was slightly warmer late in week 2. The net was slightly cooler for the 2 weeks overall with the cooling centered in the middle 1/3 of the US. It still looks plenty hot in both the NE and NW US.

By Jim_M - Aug. 13, 2018, 3:45 p.m.
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The ONLY way NG even comes close to last years storage is if there are injections up to Dec 1st.  Strong injections.  

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 12:04 a.m.
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Thanks Larry and Jim!  Extended looks cool and wet for the Midwest.

Very warm along the Coasts.



6-10 day Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  



8-14 day Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability