Weather Tuesday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:35 a.m.

A Wonderful  August 14th to you!


 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!

Rains on the move. 1 week rain amounts of this magnitude in August are rare!

These will be mostly beneficial rains. However, as mentioned yesterday, too much rain for the beans could actually turn into an issue in some locations  with this set up.

New, huge rain event very early next week(as early week 2's forecast from yesterday, moves into the late week 1 forecast)




 The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126


Comments
By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:38 a.m.
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Excessive Rainfall threat. Highest threat  in S.Plains/SW Midwest and also the Northeast today..........shifting to S.Midwest then Eastern Cornbelt the next couple of days!




Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:38 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen.  Not very high-weak jet stream.  The pattern will be favorable for heavy rains, not severe storms. In fact, because the steering currents/jet stream will be so weak, its exactly what will cause this............the big rain maker will travel very, very slowly northeastward across the Cornbelt this week. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:41 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Wednesday. Hot in the South and West.

Very warm today in many other places but no extremes.


                    

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:42 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  Humid over the southern (and far Northeast Coast today) parts of the country...........pooling moisture into S.Plains providing high precipitable water to use for heavy rains.


Current Dew Points

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:44 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Feeling sultry in the south. Dry air N.Plains.

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:49 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.

Heat in the West again, just not as intense.

Temps fairly comfortable Midwest with brief spikes of heat.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:50 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now almost 4 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

Above average along the Canadian border and West but not extreme.



High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:51 a.m.
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Weather system S.Plains now moving northeast.

Departing system in Northeast.  


https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:51 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image:



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:52 a.m.
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Satellite picture. 

US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.    Hefty amounts for parts of KS/TX/OK/AR and NY/PA!


By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

                     

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:56 a.m.
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Missouri  to S.Plains was in horrible shape......the map below continues to look better and better for that area as the drought gets busted!  Much more rain is on the way to make an even bigger dent in the long lived drought.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:57 a.m.
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Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 9:57 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought will be shrinking.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    


Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 10:01 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Today:  Very warm in parts of the West but not AS hot as recent days. Most place near average.  
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Heat is moving around. Still hottest far West......spews east briefly.  Anamolies not as extreme.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days   Warmest West again!!!! Heat moving around...... ..most places close to average.
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


Day 15 Warmest West. Massive uncertainty elsewhere.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 10:12 a.m.
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Just realized that I had been using the old runs over the last several days..........apology. 

Latest 0z run of the Canadian model ensembles..........for late week 2.  Some battling forces and huge disparity in solutions. Big heat ridge somewhere! Also, strong jet stream!

Will the jet stream be aimed towards the Midwest/Great Lakes(with cool air) and the heat ridge be farther west or will the heat ridge be farther east and the strong jet stream be diverted farther north with widespread heat?

 Upper level trough off the West Coast???

The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.


384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 30, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 10:13 a.m.
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Below are some of the 0z GFS individual ensembles at the end of 2 weeks. Alot of disagreement with some still placing the Upper level heat ridge farther east.  


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 10:16 a.m.
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The end of week,  6Z GFS ensemble average shows an upper level ridge building in  Western Canada.........actually, today its a bit  WEAKER than it was yesterday......if this happens, it could be a precursor to downstream troughing and a jet stream aimed toward the Midwest with cooling. 

Then, the question will be: How deep and far south is the upper level trough downstream?


Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-mean-sprd/06/gefs-mean-sprd_namer_360_500_vort_ht.gif

   

gefs-mean-sprd_namer_360_500_vort_ht.gif

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 10:19 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.


Carries thru with some of the week 2 changes taking place on that last GFS ensemble product described above.............even more so today, Tuesday. Heat ridge REALLY continues to build back west again very far north in Canada.........cooling downstream Plains/Midwest to East Coast.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 10:46 a.m.
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The last 6z operational GFS was an extreme/outlier with its late week 2 solution for the heat ridge(wide spread and strong) for the Midwest/East. There are only a small number of ensemble members that have anything like this:

      

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif


By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 3:20 p.m.
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Extended looks cool in the middle, very warm along the coasts......there is a good chance with so much uncertainty in week 2 and some solutions the complete opposite of this, that the forecasts below will bust.




6-10 day Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  



8-14 day Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 3:27 p.m.
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Day 12 of the latest 12z Canadian ensembles show many solutions that are much warmer than the NWS forecasts.....and some that agree. 



288h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 26, 2018 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast