For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/10516/
From Natural Gas Intelligence Tuesday Morning:
Steady Forecast, Tight Storage as Natural Gas Futures Called Higher
8:51 AM
September natural gas futures were set to open Tuesday about 1.9 cents higher at around $2.949/MMBtu, with forecasters noting only minor changes to the weather outlook overnight as a tight storage picture continued to offer support.
Storage is VERY LOW for this time of year!! This is why the temperature forecast matters.
Storage is just below the bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!
EIA storage report from last Thursday:
+46 BCF! -Neutral
From NGI: EIA Reports Near-Target 46 Bcf Injection; September Natural Gas Trades Sideways
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (08/03/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 08/03/18 | 07/27/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 575 | 552 | 23 | 23 | 670 | -14.2 | 672 | -14.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 579 | 552 | 27 | 27 | 769 | -24.7 | 732 | -20.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 148 | 146 | 2 | 2 | 202 | -26.7 | 180 | -17.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 245 | 250 | -5 | -5 | 290 | -15.5 | 316 | -22.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 807 | 808 | -1 | -1 | 1,095 | -26.3 | 1,026 | -21.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 200 | 203 | -3 | -3 | 291 | -31.3 | 275 | -27.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 607 | 604 | 3 | 3 | 804 | -24.5 | 751 | -19.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,354 | 2,308 | 46 | 46 | 3,025 | -22.2 | 2,926 | -19 | |||||||||||||||||
The 7 day period below covered the period on last week's report with +46 bcf injected. The next 7 day period ended, Friday 8-10-2018. The temperature maps below are for those 2 periods.
Last EIA period Temperature maps below(2 of them)
Maps for next report below. Note that it was WARMER, so the injection should be SMALLER:
Natural gas had a short term break out but has hit some tough resistance and some cooler forecasts(less bullish weather)ahead. Storage data last Thursday was neutral after being bullish the previous 3 weeks(expectations for big increases in supplies coming soon are potentially bearish down the road....we will see).
Natural gas is threatening to have a MAJOR upside breakout:
| Natural gas 3 months |
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
| Naturalgas10years below
|
Seasonals based on historical prices.
By WxFollower - Aug. 13, 2018, 2:57 p.m.
Now, analysts are weighing the possibility that moderate temperatures could cool the recent rally. "The short-term temperature views are gradually shifting away from above normal and toward below normal temperature trends," Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note to clients.
The above is from this morning's DJ news preopening NG report. A forecast I saw was a pretty decent amount cooler early week 2 though it was slightly warmer late in week 2. The net was slightly cooler for the 2 weeks overall with the cooling centered in the middle 1/3 of the US. It still looks plenty hot in both the NE and NW US.
By Jim_M - Aug. 13, 2018, 3:45 p.m.
The ONLY way NG even comes close to last years storage is if there are injections up to Dec 1st. Strong injections.
DJ Natural Gas Prices Spike to Highest Since June
"The West remains hot with highs of 90s to 100s. The Southeast is also hot," said NatGasWeather.com's forecast Tuesday for the next seven days. "Late in the week, high pressure will strengthen over much of the country, including highs of 90s returning to major Northeast cities for strong demand."
The above is from this morning's DJ news report.
Thanks Larry! Extended looks cool in the middle, very warm along the coasts......there is a good chance with so much uncertainty in week 2 and some solutions the complete opposite of this, that the forecasts below will bust.
6-10 day Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
8-14 day Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
Tuesday after the close comments from Natural Gas Intelligence:
Storage Supports Natural Gas Futures Gains as Cooler Forecast Tempers Rally
5:16 PM
Concerns over meager storage stockpiles helped the natural gas futures market shake off cooler weather trends Tuesday as prices gained modestly for the fall and winter contracts. In the spot market, most regions strengthened as Henry Hub gained in line with prompt month futures, while pricy locations in California and the Desert Southwest moderated; the NGI National Spot Gas Average finished 7 cents higher at $2.97/MMBtu.