KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, August 16, 2018
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 213K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -6K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1755000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +29K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1212.2K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 954.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 317.1K)
8:30 AM ET. August Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 25.7)
Prices Paid (previous 62.9)
Employment (previous 16.8)
New Orders (previous 31.4)
Prices Received (previous 36.3)
Delivery Times (previous 11.0)
Inventories (previous 14.4)
Shipments (previous 24.7)
8:30 AM ET. July New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.173M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -12.3%)
Building Permits (previous 1.273M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous -2.2%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2354B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +46B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, August 17, 2018
10:00 AM ET. July Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 97.1)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 86.4)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.9)
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. July Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Leading Index (previous 109.8)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quater Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
N/A U.S: Hawaii Statehood Day
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the late-July low crossing at 7166.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, July's high crossing at 7530.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 7530.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is July's low crossing at 7166.75. Second support is June's low crossing at 6956.00.
The September S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Today's close below the 20-day moving average low crossing at 2828.64 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September resumes this summer's rally, January's high crossing at 2885.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 2863.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2885.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2791.59. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2766.70.
The Dow closes lower on Wednesday pressured by worries surrounding Turkey’s currency crisis and continued trade tensions, while a sharp fall in oil prices sent the energy sector skidding. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,003.92 would open the door for a larger-degree decline for the balance of August. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 25,392.25 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 25,800.35. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 26,616.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,003.92. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 24,663.82.
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September T-bonds closed up 18/32's at 144-19.
September T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, July's high crossing at 146-11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-10 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 145-00. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-10. Second support is August's low crossing at 141-27.
September T-notes closed up 70-points at 120-105.
September T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 121.030 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.221 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 120.200. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is August's low crossing at 119.025. Second support is June's low crossing at 118.295.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday and at its lowest level since mid-July. Today's sell off was triggered by the latest supply-demand report, which showed an unexpected and surge in U.S. crude inventories. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 62.99 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 68.37 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 70.43. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 72.98.First support is today's low crossing at 64.51. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.99.
September heating oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 217.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 208.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of July low crossing at 204.74. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 218.57. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 223.88. First support is the reaction low crossing at 208.60. Second support is July's low crossing at 204.74.
September unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at 197.15 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 210.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 213.64. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 215.31. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 196.03. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 189.92.
September Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates below the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.973. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low June's high crossing at 3.018 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.829 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.973. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.018 is the next upside target. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.907. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.829.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 96.87. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.62. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.01.
The September Euro closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 115.26. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.26. First support is today's low crossing at 113.27. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.
The September British Pound closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off April's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3010 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3010. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3180. First support is today's low crossing at 126.78. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600.
The September Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at 0.9984 is the next downside target. Closes above the late-July high crossing at 1.0174 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is July's low crossing at 0.9984. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880.
The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, July's low crossing at 75.31 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 77.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.36. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is July's low crossing at 75.31. Second support is June's low crossing at 74.80.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9014 would renew the decline off March's high and open the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at 0.8867. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 0.9103 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.9103. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172. First support is August's low crossing at 0.8943. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.8867.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
October gold closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90 as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1217.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1217.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1239.80. First support is today's low crossing at 1175.60. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10.
September silver closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended the the decline off June's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 15.525 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.700. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.932. First support is today's low crossing at 14.345. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
September copper closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends this summer's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 281.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 286.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 290.55. First support is today's low crossing at 255.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down a 1/2-cent at 3.76.
December corn closed fractionally lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.79 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 3.65 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.99. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.65 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4.
December wheat closed down 9 1/4-cents at 5.52.
December wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.76 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is August's high crossing at 6.13. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at 6.22. First support is today's low crossing at 5.49. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.39.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 9 3/4-cents at 5.62 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.74 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.48 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.91 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 6.26. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at 6.42. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.48 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.28 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down 12 1/2-cents at 6.00 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.12 1/4 confirming that a top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.29 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 6.56. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 5.89 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.71 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down 10 1/2-cents at 8.69 1/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Wednesday erasing almost all of Tuesday's gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned decline, July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 9.14 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 8.51 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.
December soybean meal closed down $6.40 at 331.40.
December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday ending a two-day rebound off Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 338.50 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 319.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's crossing at 338.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 343.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at 321.10. Second support is weekly support crossing at 319.40.
December soybean oil closed down 36-points. At 28.25.
December soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. If December extends the aforementioned decline, July's low crossing at 27.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.39. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.15. First support is today's low crossing at 28.05. Second support is July's low crossing at 27.95.
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October hogs closed up $0.63 at $52.48.
October hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the reaction high crossing at 55.98 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 46.24 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 55.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.46. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 47.82. Second support is weekly support crossing at 46.24.
October cattle closed up $0.28 at 109.00.
October cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.07 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If October extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 105.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 112.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is July's low crossing at 105.48. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 105.13.
October Feeder cattle closed up $0.38 at $149.28.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 153.45. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 155.38. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 145.42.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 10.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this summer's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 19.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 11.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 78.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.86 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tall pine!