INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 16, 2018, 8 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, August 16, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 213K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -6K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1755000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +29K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1212.2K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 954.3K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 317.1K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. August Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous 25.7)

 



 

 

                       Prices Paid (previous 62.9)

 



 

 

                       Employment (previous 16.8)

 



 

 

                       New Orders (previous 31.4)

 



 

 

                       Prices Received (previous 36.3)

 



 

 

                       Delivery Times (previous 11.0)

 



 

 

                       Inventories (previous 14.4)

 



 

 

                       Shipments (previous 24.7)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. July New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

 



 

 

                       Total Starts (previous 1.173M)

 



 

 

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -12.3%)

 



 

 

                       Building Permits (previous 1.273M)

 



 

 

                       Building Permits, M/M% (previous -2.2%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2354B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +46B)

 

                        

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, August 17, 2018   

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. July Regional & State Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 97.1)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 86.4)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.9)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Advance Quarterly Services

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. July Leading Indicators

 



 

 

                       Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

                       Leading Index (previous 109.8)

 



 

 

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quater Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S: Hawaii Statehood Day

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as the ongoing currency crisis in Turkey showed signs of stabilizing and optimism grew that progress was being made on trade policy.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off the late-July low, July's high crossing at 7530.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7295.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 7530.00. Second resistance isunknown. First support is the late-July low crossing at 7166.75. Second support is June's low crossing at 6956.00.    



The September S&P 500 was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2793.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, January's high crossing at 2885.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2863.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2885.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2793.07. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2791.90.      



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 146-11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 145-18. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-08. Second support is August's low crossing at 141-27.  



September T-notes were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 121.030 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.218 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 120.180. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is August's low crossing at 119.025. Second support is June's low crossing at 118.295.     



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: SeptemberNymex crude oil was slightly higher in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 62.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 68.37. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 70.43. First support is the overnight low crossing at 64.43. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.99.    



September heating oil was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 218.57 are needed to renew the rally off July's low. First resistance is July's high crossing at 223.88. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.73. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.85.



September unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July high, the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 196.03 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 210.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 213.64. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 215.31. First support is July's low crossing at 197.15. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 196.03. 



September Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 3.018 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.839 would confirm a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.973. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.018. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.919. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.839.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.09 would would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 96.87. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average low crossing at 95.09.  



The September Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 115.04. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.11. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 113.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78. 



The September British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2994 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2843. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2994. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.2678. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600.  



The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the May-August trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July's high, July's low crossing at 0.9984 is the next downside target. Closes above the late-July high crossing at 1.0174 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is July's low crossing at 0.9984. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880. 



The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, July's low crossing at 75.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.55 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 77.19. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is July's low crossing at 75.31. Second support is June's low crossing at 74.80.  



The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 0.8943 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172 is the next upside target.  First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.9103. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.8943. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.8867. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher it late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1215.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1215.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1248.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1162.70. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10.



September silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this summer's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 15.525 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.700. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.889. First support is the overnight low crossing at 14.315. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620. 



September copper was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 281.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 286.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 289.19. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 255.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.79 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 3.65 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.99. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.65 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4.  



December wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.39 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the July-2017 high crossing at 6.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 6.13. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at 6.22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.39. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.23 3/4.        



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 9 3/4-cents at 5.62 3/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.74 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.48 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.91 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 6.26. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at 6.42. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.48 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.28 1/4.  



December Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.89 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.27 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is August's high crossing at 6.56. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.89 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.71 3/4.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans was higher due to short covering overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. If November resumes this month's decline, July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 9.14 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 8.51 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.



December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, July's high crossing at 343.20 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off the late-July high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 319.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 339.40. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 343.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at 321.10. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 319.40.  



December soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, July's low crossing at 29.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the late-July's high crossing at 29.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.27. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 31.29. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 28.05. Second support is July's low crossing at 29.78. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $0.63 at $52.48. 



October hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the reaction high crossing at 55.98 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 46.24 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 55.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.46. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 47.82. Second support is weekly support crossing at 46.24.  



October cattle closed up $0.28 at 109.00. 



October cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.07 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If October extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 105.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 112.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is July's low crossing at 105.48. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 105.13.  

 

October Feeder cattle closed up $0.38 at $149.28. 



October Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 153.45. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 155.38. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 145.42.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 10.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.       



September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this summer's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 19.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



October sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 11.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.  



October cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 78.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.86 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 16, 2018, 9:52 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!