For the first one since July 31, Trump has pulled to about even with Harris on Predict-It:
Thanks much, Larry!
Im finding it increasingly difficult to imagine Trump winning because he’s becoming increasingly delusional and mentally ill.
Donald Trump is by far, Donald trumps worst enemy.
the debate will likely reveal even more of that tonight.
ironically, the only person that Trump could beat was Biden…..because Biden was so bad and it’s likely the only person Harris can beat is Trump…..because Trump is so bad.
how is it that each party is running the worst people from their party for president?
its not like we don’t have smarter, more qualified and less divisive people out there.
More honest???
we are discussing US politicians!
Honesty is not a typical character trait of people in that profession.
The last honest President, for instance was Jimmy Carter!
Harris maintains her 56c to 47c higher number compared to Trump since the debate.
Latest from this site:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
++++++++++++++++++++++
Previous analysis:
Re: Re: Unmuted microphones Trump vs Harris
By metmike - Sept. 12, 2024, 4:56 p.m.
Here's the last 90 days.
1. We can see what happened to Biden after the June 27th debate debacle. MUCH Higher volume betting after that.
2. Note the Harris surge after she was anointed by the Ds, following the Biden resignation on July 21st. EXTREMELY high volume betting immediately following that until the betting numbers reflected what the market felt was more reasonable.
3. The Harris enthusiasm peaked during the DNC convention in mid-August with a slight, very temporary bump up in betting volume......which had gradually been decreasing since the monster spike higher in late July.
4. Trump was slowly eroding Harris's higher numbers since the DNC convention. Almost pulling even before this last debate.
5. Debate #2, September 10, 2024. Harris gets a big lift of at least several cents, Trump drops by around the same amount. Another modest jump higher in betting volume but nothing close to the June/July spikes up.
6. We should note that the election is coming up in less than 2 months. Things happening NOW count MUCH more than things that happened months ago. Based on everything, I would guess there's a 95% chance for Harris to win!
7. What can Trump do to change this outcome? It's likely too late. He squandered every opportunity, including the assassination attempt that he twisted and used to suggest God saved him to justify all the galactically offensive personality flaws turning off the non MAGA people. Donald Trumps mouth is his own worst enemy. Donald Trump's mouth was more responsible for his debate loss than other factors (biased moderators) that favored Harris.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
https://days.to/until/election-day-in-us
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-teamsters-endorsement-donald-trump-first-democrat-1955937
++++++++++++
But they couldn't endorse Trump either.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-electoral-college-map-new-hampshire-trump-1956173
The biggest lead that Harris had was 59c to 43c on August 12th, the week before the DNC. Trump slowly closed that gap to almost pull up to even money right before the debate. After Trump's disastrous debate, we are once again approaching her biggest lead here on September 19, 2024. Just 46 days left until the election. How people ON THE FENCE feel about the candidates REALLY matters now as we get closer and closer!
I was at 95%+ chance of Harris to win since the debate and will bump that up to 97% chance. Polls and betting can be wrong of course but Trump shot himself in the foot during the debate and the MSN is intentionally and effectively turning his eating pets comment and several other things into powerful ammo to destroy Trump.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107416/
It's extremely hard to conceive of a scenario where Trump can turn things around, with the EXCEPTION OF A NUCLEAR WAR WITH RUSSIA. That could do it. Trump is the crystal clear PEACE WITH RUSSIA candidate. Biden is the president THAT INTENTIONALLY CAUSED THE WAR WITH RUSSIA. HARRIS CLEARLY BACKS THE WAR WITH RUSSIA.
The Middle East war escalating could help Trump a bit but not enough compared to a nuclear war between the US and Russia BECAUSE OF THE BIDEN/HARRIS ADMINISTRATION. AND BIDEN PLAYED THE KEY ROLE IN CAUSING IT!
Its sort of sad for the Rs, that the only way for their person to have a chance is if we have a nuclear war with Russia. They lose the presidency with no nuclear war and we all could lose everything for Trump to win the presidency because of what Biden did to us/Ukraine and the world.
Another very sad part is that the Ds want Biden's legacy to be one that remembers him as a one of the greatest presidents in history.
A president this bad, usually is NOT elected for a 2nd term. He got kicked off the ticket, fighting to the end because the Ds got busted trying to portray a cognitively impaired, dysfunctional president as the sharpest guy in the room........who, according to them was ready for another 4 years. That belongs in the all time political "Hall of Shame" not on the greatest presidents list.
How in tarnation does the VP of this person, covering for him and part of his bad agenda, including playing a key role with his horrific southern border crisis possibly win????
If any other person were running for the Rs right now, they would win in a big landslide here. But they picked the worst candidate in history by an extremely wide margin. The person who damaged the R party more than any person in history by an extremely wide margin. Go figure!
Both sides have people that would lose many other elections in the past by a landslide.
It's a competition, where the winner is NOT the other person!
NOT Donald Trump has a 97% chance to win on November 5, 2024.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106160/
https://days.to/until/election-day-in-us
