KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, January 22, 2018
8:30 AM ET. December CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.15)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.41)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly overnight as the federal government shutdown is poised to extend into a third day as negotiations over immigration continued to roil Capitol Hill. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 index extends this winter's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6635.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 6857.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6763.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6635.93.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as the government shutdown moves into a third day. This has added further political uncertainty to a market that already embroiled in it as tensions between the U.S. and North Korea, and with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election. However, investors may not need to worry too much, as past shutdowns haven’t corresponded with significant stock-market selloffs. Data show that markets have seen modest weakness during shutdowns, with the S&P 500 falling an average of 0.6% over the period of the closure, according to data from LPL Financial. The benchmark index was only positive in 44.4% of the 18 shutdowns going back to 1976. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2739.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 2814.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2781.58. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2739.22.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 145-26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 150-00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 148-12. Second support is weekly support crossing at 145-26.
March T-notes were slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 121.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.076 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.246. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.076. First support is the overnight low crossing at 122.015. Second support is weekly support crossing at 121.225.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: MarchNymex crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off last June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.82. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.07.
March heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.21. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.14 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.21. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 196.69.
March unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 192.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 183.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 188.96. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 192.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 183.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178.53.
March Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.851 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.177 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.070. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.177. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.926. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.851.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-days. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.54 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.92. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.54. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 89.96. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 123.69. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 121.69. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.95.
The March British Pound was higher in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4057 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3629 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3972. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4057. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3745. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3629.
The March Swiss Franc were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0315 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0588 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0494. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0588. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0365. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0315.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and could lead to additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41 is the next upside target.First resistance is January's high crossing at 81.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.96.
The March Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8938 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 0.9104. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9007. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8938.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1313.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1349.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1349.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1365.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1327.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1313.90.
March silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.734 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.325. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.734. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140.
March copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.83 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.83. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 311.10.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off January's low. With all of the bearish news now factored into the corn market, there appears to be little if any downside risk to the market into the foreseeable future. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4 are needed to confirm that an important low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off last summer's high, weekly support crossing at 3.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.37 are needed to confirm that an important low has been posted. If March resumes this week's decline, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.37. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.43. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 2-cents at 4.27 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.30. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this week's decline, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 4.43. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.17 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 6.05 is the next downside target. Closes above January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is December's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.83 1/2 would open the door for additional short covering gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.65 1/2 would signal an end to this month's short covering rebound. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.83 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.93. First support is January's low crossing at 9.44 1/2. Second support is August's low crossing at 9.37 1/2.
March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last Friday's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 341.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 320.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 335.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 341.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 320.50.
March soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.13. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.72. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 32.12. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.98 at $72.08.
February hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 76.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 74.25. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 76.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.93.
February cattle closed down $0.5 at 121.90.
February cattle closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at 123.63 is the next upside target. If February renews the decline off November's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.97. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.63. First support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 112.35.
March Feeder cattle closed down $1.58 at $145.60.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 146.84 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 140.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 146.84. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.55. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 140.12. Second support is December's low crossing at 138.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.55 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Multiple closes above Thursday's high crossing at 20.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.53 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted.