Crop condition report Monday:

Corn 68% gd/ex, down 2% vs the previous week. +6% vs 2017.

Beans 65% gd/ex, down 1% vs the previous week. +5% vs 2017.

Nothing to write home about.

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-08-20-2018.txt

Corn dented 44% vs 26% avg.

Corn in dough stage 85% vs 72% avg. 

Corn way ahead on maturity, with early harvest on the way.

Beans setting pods 91% vs 83% avg.  Beans also ahead on maturity.

Freeze risk this year will be even lower than normal. In any given year, the chance of a significant freeze that takes away production is around 5% or 1 out of 20.  Am in Detroit taking care of Dad, with my records at home but thought it was 1996 when we had the last, early freeze that took away over  100 million in production. 

That one was in mid September and mainly hurt because the beans were planted late as a result of  a wet Spring/planting season. 

The corn crop will be safe by September 15 and beans shortly after that. The current weather maps, going out the farthest are UN favorable for an early freeze, so the 5% historical chance of an early damaging freeze is probably more like 2% right now. 

By metmike - Aug. 20, 2018, 11:04 a.m.            

  Export inspections. Up a bit for beans, down a bit for corn/wheat:

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

Still think the lows are in for corn but with low confidence now.

CZ  around 370.......just 20c off the lows right now and 58c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.

Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   

3 month below September(front month) 

1 year below

5 year below                                      10 year below

I thought the lows were in for bean(and they might be) but that was before the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever.  2019 to have the highest stocks in  history?

SX are now around 876, 41`c off the lows  (close to 10 year lows), around $1.84 below the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month, Sept. It is conceivable that we can make new lows. 

Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently just above the 10 year lows !!!!!

Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in. 

Soybeans 1 year chart below   

Soybeans 5 years below

Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, have bounced a bit off of 10 year lows!

As noted below in the seasonals(averaging prices over a 20 year period and graphing them with time), most of the price weakness in corn and beans takes place in June and July. 

In many years, the month of August features some price strength.......as much of the weather premium has come out and much of the crop size is known. Even great weather, sometimes has a hard time inspiring additional aggressive selling that pushes prices to new lows.

This was often described as "frost risk premium" ahead of a potential early freeze.......not much need for that this year with the crop so advanced and weather pattern so warm.

Beans have a pretty strong, brief spike down in late Sept, headed into early harvest. Corn sometimes too but it often does not take out the Summer lows. 

Tomorrow morning, we get the weekly crop sales at 7:30am CDT.  The graph below shows how we've been doing this Summer.  

Export sales from Thursday:

Wheat sales huge....corn and beans looked weak on old crop but good for corn on new crop.

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm

      Cornbelt Marketing‏ @SamuelBHudson                                              

Pretty good new crop #export sales number for #corn, and old crop #wheat numbers nearly triple last week's! Pay attention there; well behind pace still, but have a looooong way to go. If the market wants the #acres, it needs to come after them now.