Weather Thursday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:42 a.m.

Another day went by, it's already August 23rd. Do something special to remember this next day! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it today.


 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!


A lot of rain in much of the Cornbelt!!!


 The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:43 a.m.
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Excessive Rainfall threat. Current system moving east pretty fast................so rains won't stay in the same locations that long.


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:44 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen.  Elevated risk in a couple of spots.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:47 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Friday. More Marvelous in the Midwest for 2 more days. Heat in the West shifts into the Plains........on the way east in a big way after this period.



                    

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:49 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  Humid over the eastern half of the country being shoved southeast.

Very dry air N.Plains/Midwest to East Coast and even points south of that! Refreshing!!!


Current Dew Points

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:50 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Heat Index not a factor in this lovely air mass today.

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.

Here Come Da Heat...........To the eastern 1/2 of the country!


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:56 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now 4 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

These temperatures will even be a bit above normal..................for mid July at the hottest time of year!!


High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:58 a.m.
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Huge Canadian High with its very dry pleasant air mass shifting eastward.

Next weather maker now coming out of the Plains.

 

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:58 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image...active in the Great Lakes eastward.



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:59 a.m.
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Satellite picture.  

US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:59 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours. Numerous locations. New rains in Kansas yesterday with this next system.


By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 10 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 10 a.m.
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Missouri  to S.Plains was in horrible shape......the map below shows massive improvement in the S.Plains into Arkansas. Still a dry pocket  in MO.

Wet from NE/w.IA/sw.MN.

The 2nd map finally updated.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 10:01 a.m.
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Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 10:02 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 10:08 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Today:  Last of the cool in the Midwest for awhile.  Heat in the West already moving east.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Heat has spread big time across the Plains eastward!
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days   Positive anomalies across much of the country.NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


Day 15  Heat across most of the country.

Big Question now, is how long will the heat last in the Midwest/East?

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 10:13 a.m.
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Maps below of the Canadian ensembles are for 2 weeks from today.


The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average.

Upper level heat ridge from the Southern Plains to East Coast?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 07, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 10:13 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.


Updated at Noon from previous days discussion:

Today, we have widespread heat continuing in week 3 for the 4th day in a row,  and also during week 4 and now over almost the entire country.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 1:29 p.m.
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The last 12z GFS operational model is still pretty hot at the end of week 2:

              

      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif


Tons of rain in the very warm humid air over much of the Cornbelt but dry in the C/S Plains., probably to the Southwest Cornbelt as very warm air aloft defeats rain making by decreasing the vertical temperature gradient(needed for robust buoyancy/rising air/lift):

Forecast Hour:  384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 1:35 p.m.
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THe Canadian model ensembles feature a couple more members that allow the jet stream to batter the upper level ridge in the Midwest and Northeast......squeezing it to the south a bit more along the East Coast than before. 

However, there are still some solutions left that say otherwise. 


360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 7, 2018 12UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2018, 2:17 p.m.
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Will be with my 93 year old Dad the rest of the day but here is a sneak preview of the NWS extended guidance based on anomalies on one of their guidance tools:

Temps below, then below that precip.

For certain well above normal temperatures in the midsection, probably points farther east too.

A lot of rain for the nothern 1/3rd to possibly northern 1/2 of the Cornbelt, dry for the southern 1/3rd and points south and west.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif