For the weather effecting growing crops, go here:
Export sales........not very good:
https://www.agweb.com/article/crop-tour-shows-dominating-yields-in-ohio-south-dakota/
https://www.agweb.com/article/crop-tour-day-2-corn-and-beans-show-big-gains-in-indiana-and-nebraska/
https://www.agweb.com/article/crop-tour-illinois-corn-likely-to-fall-short-of-usda-predictions/
Crop condition report Monday:
Corn 68% gd/ex, down 2% vs the previous week. +6% vs 2017.
Beans 65% gd/ex, down 1% vs the previous week. +5% vs 2017.
Nothing to write home about.
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-08-20-2018.txt
Corn dented 44% vs 26% avg.
Corn in dough stage 85% vs 72% avg.
Corn way ahead on maturity, with early harvest on the way.
Beans setting pods 91% vs 83% avg. Beans also ahead on maturity.
Freeze risk this year will be even lower than normal. In any given year, the chance of a significant freeze that takes away production is around 5% or 1 out of 20. Am in Detroit taking care of Dad, with my records at home but thought it was 1996 when we had the last, early freeze that took away over 100 million in production.
That one was in mid September and mainly hurt because the beans were planted late as a result of a wet Spring/planting season.
The corn crop will be safe by September 15 and beans shortly after that. The current weather maps, going out the farthest are UN favorable for an early freeze, so the 5% historical chance of an early damaging freeze is probably more like 2% right now.
Was thinking the lows are in for corn before the USDA report earlier this month but with lowering confidence now.
CZ around 363.......just 13c off the lows right now and 65c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.
Corn historical perspective:
Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago
3 month below September(front month)
1 year below
5 year below
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I thought the lows were in for bean(and they might be) but that was before the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever. 2019 to have the highest stocks in history?
SX are now around 864, 29`c off the lows (10 year lows), around $1.96 below the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month, Sept. It is conceivable that we can make new lows.
Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently just above the 10 year lows !!!!!
Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in.
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Soybeans 1 year chart below
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Soybeans 5 years below
Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, we are back at the 10 year lows!
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As noted below in the seasonals(averaging prices over a 20 year period and graphing them with time), most of the price weakness in corn and beans takes place in June and July.
In many years, the month of August features some price strength.......as much of the weather premium has come out and much of the crop size is known. Even great weather, sometimes has a hard time inspiring additional aggressive selling that pushes prices to new lows.
This was often described as "frost risk premium" ahead of a potential early freeze.......not much need for that this year with the crop so advanced and weather pattern so warm.
Beans have a pretty strong, brief spike down in late Sept, headed into early harvest. Corn sometimes too but it often does not take out the Summer lows.
Cornbelt Marketing Retweeted
Replying to @MaxROIFarmer
PNW has not posted shuttle soy basis for months now. That's about as "worse" as it gets for guys who usually ship there.
@dtnpf basis map tells that story.....and not in a good way. #soybeans
#DTN
Not a traditional year. You have China basically shunning US bean purchases as much as possible. Historical records for stocks and Brazil purportedly looking to add another couple percent acreage this year. Oh....and don't forget a possible swine flu problem in China as well.
Beans can only take so many hits.
Started by bcb - Aug. 22, 2018, 10:40 a.m.
HOPE is getting double team vs. USDA and Mother Nature.
Pro Farmer Tour is what it is every yr.
Combines rolling will tell the real truth.
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By mcfarm - Aug. 22, 2018, 11:19 a.m.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl-Id6YR0g8 combines rolling in western Kentucky since august 13th...talk about an early start
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By silverspiker - Aug. 22, 2018, 2:50 p.m.
... charts look like if anybody sneezes sideways in the next few days... lookout for the poop-a-rooski waterfall
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By Jim_M - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:42 a.m.
Grain sales were dismal.