KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 25, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1890.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1527.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 190.6K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 235K; previous 220K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -41K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1952000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +76K)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Economic Indicators Report
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. December New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 695K; previous 733K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -5.2%; previous +17.5%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.6)
10:00 AM ET. December Leading Indicators
Leading Index (expected +0.5%; previous +0.4%)
Coincident Index (previous +0.3%)
Lagging Index (previous +0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2584B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -183B)
11:00 AM ET. January Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 21)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 29)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 14)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 22)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, January 26, 2018
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous +1.3%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.9%; previous +3.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +2.2%; previous +2.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +2.4%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.2%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight.U.S. stock futures were higher overnight, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average on course for another record. Investors are getting a number of earnings reports again, with Caterpillar Inc. and Intel Corp. among the big names posting results.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 index extends this winter's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6711.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 7004.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6853.27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6711.52.
The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2763.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2854.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2811.82. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2763.79.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES:March T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 145-26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-22 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 149-17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-22. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 148-07. Second support is weekly support crossing at 145-26.
March T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 120.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.019 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.169. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.019. First support is Monday's low crossing at 122.015. Second support is weekly support crossing at 120.285.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS:MarchNymex crude oil was slightly higher overnight as oil prices posted a fresh three-year high. Brent crude oil rose above $71 a barrel after the market saw another drop in U.S. crude inventory and the dollar continued to sell off.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.85 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 66.44. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.85. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.57.
March heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally above the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.21. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 202.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 211.55. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96. First support is the reaction low crossing at 202.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.75.
March unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 197.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 185.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 192.55. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 197.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 185.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179.20.
March Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.177 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.923 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.177. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.281. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.006. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.923.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly lower in late-overnight trading as it extends the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.01. First support is the overnight low crossing at 88.61. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 124.97. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.93. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.65.
The March British Pound was higher in overnight trading as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3746 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.4352. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3939. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3746.
The March Swiss Franc were higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, last July's high crossing at 1.0762 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0373 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0672. Second resistance is last July's high crossing at 1.0762. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0462. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0373.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's breakout to the topside of this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. Second resistance is 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.23. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.48.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight and tested the 75% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9218 as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.8992 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9218. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9074. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.8992.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight and tested last September's high crossing at 1365.80. as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the contract high posted in August-2016 crossing at 1397.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1325.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last September high crossing at 1365.80. Second resistance is the August-2016 high crossing at 1397.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1337.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1325.00.
March silver was lower in late-overnight trading but not before testing resistance marked by the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 18.015 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.752 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 18.015. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.752. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140.
March copper was slightly higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 323.13 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off last summer's high, weekly support crossing at 3.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. Second resistance is last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.37 are needed to confirm that an important low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off last July's high, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.37. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.43. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 9 3/4-cents at 4.33.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 4.43. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.17 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 6.04 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.69 1/2 would signal an end to this month's short covering rebound. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 9.95 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.69 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at 9.44 1/2.
March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 345.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 324.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 344.90. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 351.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 329.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 324.10.
March soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.05. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.54. First support is Monday's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $0.68 at $72.92.
February hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 76.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 74.25. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 76.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.02. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 70.05.
February cattle closed up $0.70 at 125.43.
February cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 126.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 125.68. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.84. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.79.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.58 at $146.40.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 148.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 140.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. First support is the reaction low crossing at 140.12. Second support is December's low crossing at 138.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.51 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Multiple closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 20.11 are needed to renew the rally off December's low.
March sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.24 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target.