Weather Saturday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:32 a.m.

Holy Cow, it's already August 25th,  where does the time go! Do something special to remember this next day! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it today.


I will traveling on Sunday after spending 2 wonderful weeks assisting my awesome 93 year old Dad and there may not be a weather update.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!

Massive rains over the next week in much of the Cornbelt.....especially for this time of year that's often dry!

Probably too much rain from Northeast IA, northeastward.


 The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:33 a.m.
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Excessive Rainfall threat. This will increase next week.


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

                                    


By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:34 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen.  Elevated risk in a couple of spots.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:36 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Sunday. Here comes the heat............expanding into the Plains, Midwest and East over the Weekend.



                    

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:37 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

Here comes the more humid air too, with the southerly winds!


Current Dew Points

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:38 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Heat Index an increasing factor again as the weekend goes on.

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:44 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.

Hot start...........To the eastern 1/2 of the country!

Then a brief shot of cooler air for the N.Plains to Midwest/Northeast as first advertised here in yesterday forecast(that caused natural gas prices  to plunge lower on Friday) then the heat starts to return by the end of next week...........and the end of August!


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:46 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now MORE THAN 4 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

These temperatures will be close to normal..................for mid July at the hottest time of year!!

They are cooler late next week than Thursday's forecast but similar to Friday's forecast!


High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:50 a.m.
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Huge Canadian High with its very dry pleasant air mass has shifted eastward......the center is now along the East Coast. Winds on it's backside are from the south..........transporting in deep level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico which will provide copious H2O for widespread rains in much of the Cornbelt over the next week.


 

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:51 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image.



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:51 a.m.
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Satellite picture.  

US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:53 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.  A north/south band Just east of the Mississippi. 


By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:53 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

                                    


By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:53 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

                                    


By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:57 a.m.
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Southern Plains was in horrible shape......the map below shows massive improvement there.  Still a dry pocket  in N. MO which may get more rain in the next week.

Much of the Cornbelt is great shape for Late August so the crops have been fed lots of yield making H2O in August.

Wet from NE/w.IA/sw.MN..............and the East Coast.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:57 a.m.
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Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 8:59 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in N.Missouri and Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 9:03 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Today:     Heat has already shifted out of the West and is shifting into the Plains right now, on the way to the Midwest/East as the weekend goes on.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Just prior to this, a weak cool front, will temper the heat in the N.Plains/Midwest/Northeast.......then the heat returns quickly as seen here.  
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days   Positive anomalies across much of the country.NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


Day 15  Heat across most of the country.

Big Question now, is how long will the heat last in the Midwest/East?

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 9:08 a.m.
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Maps below of the Canadian ensembles are for 2 weeks from today.


The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average.

Upper level heat ridge in the Southern Plains! but does it hold on at the  East Coast(Midwest) still?  A 50-50 split on whether to maintain the ridge along the East Coast vs allowing a strong jet stream to dislodge it.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 09, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2018, 9:10 a.m.
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NWS extended still the same.........high probability of above average temperatures over much of the country. Above average rains over much of the Cornbelt.


This product will be updated automatically at around 2pm CDT. 


6-10 day Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


8-14 day Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability