Todd E. Gleason @commodityweek
Pro Farmer national crop pegs: Corn 14.501 billion bu., yield 177.3 bpa (+/- 1%). Soybeans 4.683 billion bu., yield 53.0 bpa (+/- 2%). @BGrete goes through the Iowa and Minnesota state number and tallies the official Pro Farmer Newsletter estimates. https://soundcloud.com/narrowrow/aug-24-pro-farmer-midwest-crop-tour-official-yield-estimates …
Was thinking the lows are in for corn before the USDA report earlier this month but with ever lowering confidence now.
CZ around 362.......just 12c off the lows right now and 66c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.
Corn historical perspective:
Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago
3 month below September(front month)
1 year below
5 year below
|
I thought the lows were in for beans(and they might be) but that was before the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever. 2019 to have the highest stocks in history?
Also, outstanding August weather has increased the crop size.
SX are now around 851, just 16`c off the lows but we traded down to 838 earlier this morning and tested the lows(10 year lows), well over $2 below the 10.60 late May highs. It is conceivable that we can make new lows.
Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently back to 10 year lows !!!!!
Charts below not updated this morning and is still Sept contract.
Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in.
| |
Soybeans 1 year chart below
| |
Soybeans 5 years below
Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, we are back at the 10 year lows!
| |
As noted below in the seasonals(averaging prices over a 20 year period and graphing them with time), most of the price weakness in corn and beans takes place in June and July.
In many years, the month of August features some price strength.......as much of the weather premium has come out and much of the crop size is known. Even great weather, sometimes has a hard time inspiring additional aggressive selling that pushes prices to new lows.
We've had great weather and have pushed back near the lows.
This was often described as "frost risk premium" ahead of a potential early freeze.......not much need for that this year with the crop so advanced and weather pattern so warm.
Beans have a pretty strong, brief spike down in late Sept, headed into early harvest that can often features new lows. Corn sometimes too but it often does not take out the Summer lows.
Previous comments:
By Jim_M - Aug. 23, 2018, 10:58 a.m.
Not a traditional year. You have China basically shunning US bean purchases as much as possible. Historical records for stocks and Brazil purportedly looking to add another couple percent acreage this year. Oh....and don't forget a possible swine flu problem in China as well.
Beans can only take so many hits.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Started by bcb - Aug. 22, 2018, 10:40 a.m.
HOPE is getting double team vs. USDA and Mother Nature.
Pro Farmer Tour is what it is every yr.
Combines rolling will tell the real truth.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
By mcfarm - Aug. 22, 2018, 11:19 a.m.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl-Id6YR0g8 combines rolling in western Kentucky since august 13th...talk about an early start
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
By silverspiker - Aug. 22, 2018, 2:50 p.m.
... charts look like if anybody sneezes sideways in the next few days... lookout for the poop-a-rooski waterfall
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
By Jim_M - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:42 a.m.
Grain sales were dismal.
We are going to see beans in the $7 range before this downside is over.
You might be right Jim. However, I wouldn't want to be short on news of the China situation getting better. Since hot/dry weather can't hurt the crop anymore, I can't tell you how the weather will effect prices.
An early freeze would require the pattern to completely flip in 2 weeks(it's happened) and the CFS week 3 forecast calls for a big cold wave during that time frame but the crop is ahead on maturity, so the chance of freeze damage is still around 2% right now vs the average of 5%.
There is a threat for some excessive rains in the next 2 weeks. A bit unusual for this time of year. I don't remember an excessive rain event at this time of year reducing yields and that does not look to be the case now.....just something to watch.
The NWS has updated the extreme weather page and also has this as a potential hazard:
Extreme weather threat days 3-7..................lengthy period with potential for excessive rains in the Central Cornbelt. This will likely result in some rare, early September flooding:
USDA crop condition report:
Corn was unchanged and beans improved` 1%. Crop ratings are not going to be much of a factor for the rest of this year.
10% of the corn crop is already mature, compared to 5% average.