Grains Tuesday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 28, 2018, 10:26 a.m.

For the weather that effects crops...................that  are getting mature, go here..................heavy rains for the Central Corn coming up!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/11452/


Extreme weather threat days 3-7..................lengthy period with potential for excessive rains in the Central Cornbelt. This will likely result in some rare, early September flooding. 


This has been updated and shifted slightly farther north vs the previous forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

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By metmike - Aug. 28, 2018, 10:28 a.m.
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USDA crop condition report:


Corn was unchanged and beans improved` 1%. Crop ratings are not going to be much of a factor for the rest of this year.


10% of  the corn crop is already mature, compared to 5% average.


https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog3518.txt

By metmike - Aug. 28, 2018, 10:31 a.m.
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Pro Farmer national crop pegs: Corn 14.501 billion bu., yield 177.3 bpa (+/- 1%). Soybeans 4.683 billion bu., yield 53.0 bpa (+/- 2%). @BGrete goes through the Iowa and Minnesota state number and tallies the official Pro Farmer Newsletter estimates. https://soundcloud.com/narrowrow/aug-24-pro-farmer-midwest-crop-tour-official-yield-estimates …

                                                 

 

By metmike - Aug. 28, 2018, 10:32 a.m.
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Was thinking the lows are in for corn before the USDA report earlier this month +favorable weather for filling but with ever lowering confidence now. Would not be surprised at new lows. 

CZ  around 360.......just 10c off the lows right now and 68c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.


Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   


3 month below September(front month) 


1 year below

                   

5 year below                

                   

 10 year below                

                   
By metmike - Aug. 28, 2018, 10:38 a.m.
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I thought the lows were in for beans but that was before the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever.  2019 to have the highest stocks in  history!

Also, outstanding August weather has increased the crop size.

SX are now around 839, just 5`c off the lows  but we traded down to 838 earlier this morning again and tested the lows(10 year lows), well over $2 below the 10.60 late May highs.  It is  conceivable that we can make new lows............maybe even today.


Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently back to 10 year lows !!!!!


Charts below not updated this morning and is still Sept contract.


Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in. 

                   



Soybeans 1 year chart below   

                   
                    


Soybeans 5 years below



Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, we are back at the 10 year lows!

                   

                                    


            

                

                                                                                                    Email: meteormike@msn.com | IP

By metmike - Aug. 28, 2018, 10:40 a.m.
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As noted below in the seasonals(averaging prices over a 20 year period and graphing them with time), most of the price weakness in corn and beans takes place in June and July. 

In many years, the month of August features some price strength.......as much of the weather premium has come out and much of the crop size is known. Even great weather, sometimes has a hard time inspiring additional aggressive selling that pushes prices to new lows. 

We've had great weather and have pushed back near the lows.

This was often described as "frost risk premium" ahead of a potential early freeze.......not much need for that this year with the crop so advanced and weather pattern so warm.

Beans have a pretty strong, brief spike down in late Sept, headed into early harvest that can often features new lows. Corn sometimes too but it often does not take out the Summer lows. 



By metmike - Aug. 28, 2018, 10:45 a.m.
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Previous comments:


 By Jim_M - Aug. 23, 2018, 10:58 a.m.            

            

Not a traditional year.  You have China basically shunning US bean purchases as much as possible.  Historical records for stocks and Brazil purportedly looking to add another couple percent acreage this year.  Oh....and don't forget a possible swine flu problem in China as well.

Beans can only take so many hits.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

            


                Started by bcb - Aug. 22, 2018, 10:40 a.m.            

                                        

HOPE is getting double team vs. USDA and Mother Nature.

Pro Farmer Tour is what it is every yr.

Combines rolling will tell the real truth.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


                By mcfarm - Aug. 22, 2018, 11:19 a.m.            

            

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl-Id6YR0g8  combines rolling in western Kentucky since august 13th...talk about an early start

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

       

                By silverspiker - Aug. 22, 2018, 2:50 p.m.            

          

... charts look like if anybody sneezes sideways in the next few days... lookout for the poop-a-rooski waterfall   

  ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


                       By Jim_M - Aug. 23, 2018, 9:42 a.m.            

            

Grain sales were dismal.  

    ++++++               ++++++++++++++                 


  

                By Jim_M - Aug. 27, 2018, 1:37 p.m.            

            

We are going to see beans in the $7 range before this downside is over.  

+++++++++++++++++           

           By metmike - Aug. 27, 2018, 4:21 p.m.                 

You might be right Jim. However, I wouldn't want to be short on news of the China situation getting better. Since hot/dry weather can't hurt the crop anymore, I can't tell you how the weather will effect prices.

An early freeze would require the pattern to completely flip in 2 weeks(it's happened) and the CFS week 3 forecast calls for a big cold wave during that time frame but the crop is ahead on maturity, so the chance of freeze damage is still around 2% right now vs the average of 5%.

There is a threat for some excessive rains in the next 2 weeks. A bit unusual for this time of year. I don't remember an excessive rain event at this time of year reducing yields and that does not look to be the case now.....just something to watch. 

By metmike - Aug. 28, 2018, 1:14 p.m.
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Special weather update below:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/11452/#11507

                Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            

                                        

The last 12z GFS continues to cool things off early in week 2 like previous solutions but is not as cool later in week 2.

To me, the most significant weather coming up is going to be the massive rains in the Central Cornbelt. 

6+ inches from later this week into next week over a several state area.

Probably from around the KS/MO border to slightly northward.........into IA but the specific zone with the heaviest, REPEAT rains could be shifted from that.


Forecast Hour:  384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

By Jim_M - Aug. 28, 2018, 1:49 p.m.
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Seeing that seasonally, beans don't typically bottom until the end of September, doesn't bode well ahead for bean prices.  

With all the bearish things lining up against beans, could we go another dollar lower?  

Sojabohnen Future saisonal

By silverspiker - Aug. 28, 2018, 3:18 p.m.
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Corn & Soybeans breaking down hard ( if I had any in the ground I would be hedging hard for the next week).... 

Novie bean objective 7-64... If Z-Corn breaks 3-48 look out/down for 3-32 "REAL FAST" and then if by chance it ever 

prints 3-16 I would be willing to buy with both hands...

P.S. will put some charts up for Wednesday's grains for a perspective/benchmark.... it is o.k. to make money on both 

sides of the market especially if you are physically long by having plants in the ground... usually downside makes the 

fastest money...

By metmike - Aug. 28, 2018, 3:44 p.m.
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Thanks much SS!

By metmike - Aug. 28, 2018, 3:46 p.m.
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Latest on heavy rain events coming up:             


   By metmike - Aug. 28, 2018, 3:42 p.m.            

            As noted the last couple of days, the main weather event coming up is going to be heavy rain events from late this week into early next week.

Here is the area that the NWS is currently targeting for potentially excessive rains from this Friday thru next Tuesday,. This has been shifted a bit north from the previous outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png