KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, January 26, 2018
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous +1.3%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.9%; previous +3.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +2.2%; previous +2.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +2.4%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.2%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 index extends this winter's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6736.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 7004.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6875.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6736.15.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally.U.S. stock futures are poised to extend this year's rallies in the Dow and S&P 500, as investors wait to see if new GDP data due out later this morning supports the picture of a healthy U.S. economy.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2771.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2854.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2819.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2771.86.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-16 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 145-26 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 149-15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-16. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 148-07. Second support is weekly support crossing at 145-26.
March T-notes were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.313 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 120.285 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.148. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.313. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 121.310. Second support is weekly support crossing at 120.285.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: MarchNymex crude oil was slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 66.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.11. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.72.
March heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally above the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.21. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 202.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 212.36. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96. First support is the reaction low crossing at 202.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.12.
March unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 197.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 185.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 192.60. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 197.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 185.56. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179.40.
March Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.177 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.943 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.177. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.281. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.021. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.943.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.94. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.84. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 88.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at 126.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.91.
The March British Pound was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3781 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.4370. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3997. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3781.
The March Swiss Franc were higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the August-2016 high crossing at 1.0859 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0399 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is is last July's high crossing at 1.0762. Second resistance is the August-2016 high crossing at 1.0859. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0507. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0399.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's breakout to the topside of this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. Second resistance is 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.31. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.48.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9005 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9218. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9086. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9005.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1327.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, the contract high posted in August-2016 crossing at 1397.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last September high crossing at 1365.80. Second resistance is the August-2016 high crossing at 1397.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1339.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1327.40.
March silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's loss. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 18.015 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.752 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 18.015. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.752. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140.
March copper was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 322.62 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.51 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. Second resistance is last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.37 are needed to confirm that an important low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off last July's high, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.37. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.43. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 2-cents at 4.35.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 4.43. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.17 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.21 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 6.04 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.70 1/2 would signal an end to this month's short covering rebound. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 9.95 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.70 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at 9.44 1/2.
March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 325.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 351.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 344.90. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 351.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 322.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 325.10.
March soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.01. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.