USDA crop condition report:

Corn was unchanged and beans improved` 1%. Crop ratings are not going to be much of a factor for the rest of this year.

10% of  the corn crop is already mature, compared to 5% average.

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog3518.tx

Pro Farmer national crop pegs: Corn 14.501 billion bu., yield 177.3 bpa (+/- 1%). Soybeans 4.683 billion bu., yield 53.0 bpa (+/- 2%). @BGrete goes through the Iowa and Minnesota state number and tallies the official Pro Farmer Newsletter estimates. https://soundcloud.com/narrowrow/aug-24-pro-farmer-midwest-crop-tour-official-yield-estimates …

Was thinking the lows are in for corn before the USDA report earlier this month +favorable weather for filling but would not be surprised at new lows now. 

CZ  around 356.......just 6c off the lows right now and 72c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.

Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   

3 month below September(front month) 

1 year below

5 year below                                      10 year below

I thought the lows were in for beans but that was before the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever.  2019 to have the highest stocks in  history!

Also, outstanding August weather has increased the crop size.

SX made new lows of 8.32 overnight but excessive rains coming up have us higher at the moment, now around 8.36, just 4`c off the lows. These are 10 year low and 2.24 below the 10.60 late May highs. 

If these excessive rain events go away we will probably go even lower...........or when they end(which could be some time).

Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently back to 10 year lows !!!!!

Charts below not updated this morning and is still Sept contract.

Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in. 

Soybeans 1 year chart below   

Soybeans 5 years below

Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, we are back at the 10 year lows!

As noted below in the seasonals(averaging prices over a 20 year period and graphing them with time), most of the price weakness in corn and beans takes place in June and July. 

In many years, the month of August features some price strength.......as much of the weather premium has come out and much of the crop size is known. Even great weather, sometimes has a hard time inspiring additional aggressive selling that pushes prices to new lows. 

However, this August has featured great weather and a record crop and has pushed us back near the lows.

This was often described as "frost risk premium" ahead of a potential early freeze.......not much need for that this year with the crop so advanced and weather pattern so warm. However, we have never had a bounce at this time of year from excessive rains.............because they are so rare in early September.

Beans have a pretty strong, brief spike down in late Sept, headed into early harvest that can often features new lows. Corn sometimes too but it often does not take out the Summer lows. 

See the latest heavy rain threat updates here.............scroll down on that thread:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/11564/