News is coming to light, that the senate did not give Trump the authourity for a bilateral deal with Mexico, and exclude Canada
Senate rules were for a trilateral agreement with Canada and Mexico
This agenda that Trump is pushing for Canada to sign by Friday is seen as simply Trump pressure, by many in the senate.
Canada could take 30 days or longer
Pubs in the senate have expressed the logical conclusion that what took USA and Mexico 5 weeks to conclude is not feasible in a few days
Some scholars see the only way out for Trump by Friday, is if the senate changes the rules or authourity given Trump
Some scholars have expressed different views as to what is legal. What seems to be most likely is the 36 or 37 states [depending on who is counting] that have pub representatives may not allow a bill to pass the senate floor by this Friday
There is also concern as to who in Mexico is covered by the new wage law. Is this production assembly workers only and what about the countless workers in parts manufacturing. Information about many aspects of the Mexico agreement are lacking and many want more information
The media and various scholars are busy writing opinion releases but a source of hard information seems to be lacking
Until hard and detailed information, the thought amongst many republican senators is any bill on the senate floor will not pass, unless the rules change by Friday. This also needs senate support..
I don't know how your senate works on senate bills but seems to me, just a few pubs voting against any senate bill, would not pass, thus a bill would not likely even be considered for a vote
Trudeau has at least 30 days [for what ever reason I do not know] and some think even longer.
What took 5 weeks for Mexico, many think an equal time frame for Canada, is logical, unless of course, the senate changes the rules
At this time most agree the rules change won't happen.
Trump may think he has all the cards, but the people with the final decision seem to think otherwise
Especially those 36 or 37 states who would be impacted the most, by any decision by Trudeau. Michigan is obviously the biggest state impacted by any change
There is also conflicting information as to the legality of Trumps talking point about tariffs on cars entering the USA from Canada. Officials may not want to dig up enough information on the content of the cars original parts manufacturing source, without a major disruption of sources files which the Big three may find as unreasonable extra cost just to comply with Trumps many threats. Parts go back and forth many times before reaching the final assembly plant. If it is found that most of the manufacturing of parts originated in the USA this sets up a legal question of tariffs on cars which were mostly made in the USA, but final assembly was in Canada. Canada doesn't have a very large assembly plant capacity as Trump must think.
For example of parts manufacture process:
A plant will not be geared up to make all the engine parts. These engine parts originate from various manufacturing plants before the finished engine arrives at the assembly plant. The same for brake assemblies, seats, etc. etc. These finished car parts arrive by truck to the assembly plant from all over NA
I trucked fibre glass hoods to an assembly plant in Canada all the way from St. Louis, Missouri
The big three don't want to close down supply lines and open new supply lines. This takes time and money They will go to their state representatives for political lobbying
Because many have brought to attention that in many cars, assembled in Canada, that most of the manufacturing of parts, was done in the USA
Thus Trump would hurt the very people he professes to help.. If the tarrifs were enacted, several parts jobs, in the USA might cease to exist as the tariff would impact sales, thus many manufacturing parts jobs would decline or plant closure would be most likely as the parts supply consolidates into fewer plants, as less demand for USA parts would happen, due to tariffs..
This won't please Detroit/Michigan part supply plants and thus the lobby effort intensifies.
Trump is a big picture person, but the devil is in the details. This is obviously not a situation like china with closed door access to markets and all the other legitimate trade barrier problems with china
Canada and the USA have a working relationship that has many details, within the small print, which Trump fails to understand
He may create an auto job over here but lose more jobs over there, all withing the 36 or 37 states, who depend on Canada for a large share of jobs, resulting in cross border trade with Canada
Many Trump supporters have started to express concern with Trumps lack of Mexico details and his Canada/USA trade knowledge and are speaking out, mostly about concern as to how this trade agreement affects their state
You may find different information, to add to my post, which would be very helpful, if you have an interest in trade developments.
So far, all I can find is opinion. Statements made by Larry Kudlow could be considered as his opinion only. My post is based on other people's opinion, biased I am sure and thus not to be taken as fact.
We all know politics is local. I have found, what looks like one thing from the outside is a whole different story, once you are inside and presented with the true facts of any situation
Boy O boy. I am so tempted to try and get elected to the local school board. 1/2 empty school buses, which seem to be on the road at all hours of normal school hrs just makes my head spin at the apparent waste of our tax dollars. Some students board the school bus at 6:30 A:M and are expected to be awake for class room studies??? and then I see students walking home at 2 P:M
" Boy O boy. I am so tempted to try and get elected to the local school board. "
You got my vote, Wayne. Oh, wait a moment. I didn't move to Canada like I said I would if Trump won.
Thanks for a very detailed post.
Thank you Wayne...
... personally I am in great hopes that we take our time to insure an agreement which easily transports some
of that 300 acres of sweet corn to my picnic table...