Welcome to September 2nd! Do something special to remember this next day! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it today.
The latest on Tropical Storm Gordon here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/11991/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!
The long advertised big rain events are underway. Especially noteworthy for this time of year that's often dry. Still looks similar to my forecast all week.
Beans finally paid attention on Friday!
Too much rain in many places from the C/S Plains to the W.Cornbelt to the W.Great Lakes..........including Iowa. 6+ inches of rain in some places.
The change since yesterday is that the area of heavy rains will shift southeast, starting in around the middle of this upcoming week.
The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive Rainfall threat. When there is an upper level ridge along the East Coast, it pumps moisture into the Midwest for heavy rain events.
There will be a risk of excessive rains in the Midwest for the next several days................high confidence.
Current Day 1 Forecast
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk. Hit the map for full screen. Main risk is heavy rains not severe storms..........though a severe storm or 2 can't be ruled out.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
High Temperatures today and Monday. Hot in the East.
Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!
Humid air in place. Gulf of Mexico moisture +fairly high soil moisture. This H2O is pooling into our huge rain maker the next several days.
Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Heat Index is a big factor from the Plains eastward right now.
Highs days 3-7.
September starting off hot. Some cooler air mid week in the N.Plains that works into the Midwest/Great Lakes, then Northeast as the week goes on.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year? We are now 6 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.
These temperatures will be close to normal..................for early August not the start of September for the eastern half of the country!
Not as hot as Fridays temperature forecast.
High temperature departures:
Low Temperature Departures:
As warm, moist air moves northward, with southerly winds(on the backside of a huge high pressure system along the East Coast) waves of heavy thunderstorms will continue the next several days in the Plains and Midwest.
https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather
Here is the latest radar image. Should be pretty active in parts of the Plains/Midwest.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
Satellite picture. Blobs of thunderstorms will be visible at times.
Rains the past 24 hours. Heaviest from KS/NE/IA/IL/MI but nothing too excessive............yet.
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Southern Plains was in horrible shape......the map below shows massive improvement there. Dry pocket in N. MO almost gone.
Much of the Cornbelt is in great shape for early September so the crops were fed lots of yield making H2O in August.
Wet from NE/w.IA/sw.MN..............and the East Coast. It will become WETTER for a large area of the Central Plain to Western Cornbelt to Upper Midwest in the next few days.
Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward. This has increased yields in August!!!
Now we will get too much rain!
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in N.Missouri(which will shrink more in next weeks update) and Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in white.
Today: Heat has returned to much of the Midwest and all of the East! 
In 5+ days:
Heat across much of the country. Not as warm Midwest/East as Friday's forecast. 
In 10+ days:
Day 15 Positive anomalies much of the country. Not as warm as Friday-East.
The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
Question is........how dominant will the heat ridge be in the East as week 2 progresses? Will it be suppressed south? Over half the members below still have a stout East Coast ridge at the end of week 2!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 17, 2018 00 UTC
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.
This product has been changing the last few days(nothing new for this time frame). Now it has the heat ridge across most of the Great USA.
September is gradually getting cooler, almost every year and heating degree days start replacing cooling degree days as being the most important.
In October onward, warmth like this, especially in the Northern States will be increasingly BEARISH because of a reductions in Heating Degree Days vs the heat currently increasing Cooling Degree Days.
Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:
Precip below:
Looking way out to the latest NWS Winter Forecast that was updated this part week. Large area of above normal temperatures for the Northern 1/2 of the country.
Near normal temperatures in the Southern 1/2 and wet in the south.
This looks like an El Nino type analog. In other words, the NWS is expecting an El Nino this Winter(weak), so their seasonal forecast is mostly based off of historical tendencies for weather in the Great USA when there is an El Nino in the Pacific.
El Nino's are capable of having a profound influence on the weather......especially directly downstream(in the US). The oceans have 1,000 times more heat capacity than the atmosphere, and the Pacific Ocean has over half of that.
Changes in heating in the lower atmosphere is what causes our weather. This is all the result of the sun. The sun's angle changes, which is what causes more heat in some places vs others. Oceans store and release much of that heat, which pulsates randomly and also in cycles. Seasonal variations in the suns power/angle as well as a rotating planet(Coriolis force) are other factors.
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NWS extended has changed a bit today......in the direction of what Larry and I discussed earlier today in the natural gas Friday thread.
Take into consideration that we are using automated computer generated guidance on weekends vs maps M-F, when meteorologists make adjustments to the guidance based on applying judgments in weighting specific dynamics accordingly to improve the skill of the computer guidance......and also the week 2 part of the forecast is very low confidence right now.
What we have is still widespread above normal temperatures but probabilities are a bit lower, especially in the 8-14 day and the magnitude of the heat is not as great as the market traded on Friday.
Precipitation is less in the 8-14 day period.
6-10 day Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
8-14 day Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
