Q3:18 GDP Estimate..
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Started by TimNew - Sept. 2, 2018, 8:19 p.m.

This is almost as good as the "Week in Review".  They track almost all of the things that I watch.  It's pretty positive so far for this qtr.  But it's early.


https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf  


Baring a surprise,  I expect we'll see about 4.5%  +/- a little.


Remember when we were told 2.1 was the new normal?

Comments
By bear - Sept. 5, 2018, 1:30 p.m.
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yes, without the tax cuts,  2% would be the new normal.

but the tax cuts are helping boost GDP.  (but we also should have included spending cuts, imo).  

if you look at the fed now pages,  the gdp est keeps getting revised downward.  and i expect it will come in lower than 4%.   but still much better than the old 2% norm.  

of course i have been wrong before.  

there is a distortion problem,  but i will not address it right here.  maybe later.  

By joj - Sept. 5, 2018, 5:52 p.m.
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I look forward to the deficit numbers which, I am lectured by my conservative friends and colleagues, will go down as a result of this GDP growth.  Also, will GDP numbers be sustained next year?

By Richard - Sept. 5, 2018, 9:05 p.m.
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The FED controls the money supply and the money supply controls the economy. Trump got a nice boost from the tax cuts, which caught the FED off guard and they did not raise interest rates fast enough, but that will NOT happen again! There is literally ZERO chance of another 4.0% growth quarter. Just look at Gold. Liquidity in the system is NULL. What the money supply will do next week is anyone's guess, but if the current growth rates of M2 continue, we will be looking at 1% growth in the US. That is a fact.

By Richard - Sept. 5, 2018, 9:09 p.m.
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My own personal opinion, which I can not prove, is that the FED will continue to squeeze the money supply, like a pimple on a 16 yo girl, until oil is UNDER $60. Not in the 60's, not close to $60, but UNDER $60.

By TimNew - Sept. 6, 2018, 3:58 a.m.
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Treasury Budget Deficit/Surplus numbers are released every month.   We are running a deficit,  but nothing near the dire "projections", and April set an all time record for both income and surplus.   Of course,  April is almost always a surplus month.

                 Revenue        Spending   Surplus

Apr-18510,000296,000-214,000


Our problem right now is not income,  which is up nicely,  it's spending, which is up ever nicer.


Current deficit through July for fiscal 18 which ends this month, is about 684 billion. Current forecast for August is 76.9b


Deficits in Raw dollars are not meaningless,  but are far better defined as a percent of the GDP.  Quite likely,  in that regard, this years deficit will be smaller than last years,

By TimNew - Sept. 7, 2018, 3:11 a.m.
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BTW,  the link I posted at the start of this thread is updated almost daily by the Atl Fed (As data becomes available)  and is about the most accurate tracking of the US GDP forecast there is.


Last for Q3:18 was 4.4.