Tropical Storm Gordon
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Started by metmike - Sept. 3, 2018, 12:44 a.m.

Tropical Storm Gordon may be on the way! Major Hurricanes in the central and western Gulf can cause natural gas prices to spike higher. However, there is much less production in the GOM as there was over a decade ago and this tropical system is not likely to develop much:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

       


       
       




cone graphic



image
Comments
By cutworm - Sept. 3, 2018, 11:47 a.m.
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The predicted path should put the remnants of Gordon right over some of the corn belt  that are going to get heavy rains this week. JMHO

By metmike - Sept. 3, 2018, 12:12 p.m.
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cutworm,

With the upper level heat ridge weakening this week and allowing cooler/drier air to push south, it's difficult to say how far north the remnants of Gordon can make it but the  S.Midwest is  possible, maybe farther north after the cool front stalls next weekend.

After reviewing more, it looks like that front will stall and even return north as a warm front, ahead of a strong wave from a mid latitude source that may organize a system that entrains remnant moisture from Gordon and tracks northeast.


So what might happen is that the remnants of Gordon will continue to track northwest, possibly as far west at the OK/KS border by late Fri/early Sat.  At that point, it will get picked up by a system along a stalled front and load massive amounts of precipitable water into it. 

That system will then track northeast over the weekend.........possibly strong enough to have a small  surface (low) reflection and dump some copious rain amounts along its path.  It will be moving, so hefty rain totals directly from Gordon will only last something like 8-12 hours...............then be gone before the start of next work week.




By metmike - Sept. 3, 2018, 12:21 p.m.
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Gordon was dubbed a tropical storm and got his name earlier today. The NHC's updated forecast calls for the potential of Gordon to become a minimal hurricane just before  landfall.............which should be very late Tuesday and around the MS/AL border. 

Gordon will not effect natural gas production much but there may be a couple of days of shut ins. Larry?


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/031455.shtml?

By wxgrant - Sept. 3, 2018, 12:58 p.m.
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Most of the models keep Gordon a strong tropical storm, winds 60-70 PMH at landfall. It also appears as though it will never become symmetrical keeping most of the rain and wind on the right side of the track. Much of Louisiana will likely have an offshore wind the entire event. Not sure how that plays into Natural Gas? The HRWF does increase the wind speed to near 100MPH before landfall but it is the outlier. 

By wxgrant - Sept. 3, 2018, 1:48 p.m.
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By wxgrant - Sept. 3, 2018, 1:52 p.m.
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Looks fairly organized moving off the SW coast of FL. SST around 84F the entire path. Gordon will experience little in the way of shear it appears the next 18 hours so he could strengthen more than most models are showing. Shear looks to increase as it moves south of Mobile Bay so that should limit its potential strength. But I think the likelihood or Gordon becoming a hurricane is greater based on the current radar data. 

By wxgrant - Sept. 3, 2018, 3:34 p.m.
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Here is the latest track on Gordon:

By metmike - Sept. 3, 2018, 3:51 p.m.
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Thanks so much Grant! Awesome stuff. We didn't get your latest track map. 


Larry must be on vacation. You and him are going to have fun with the hurricanes. 

 Gordon is not going to effect the natural gas market because its too weak and too far east.


The real warm water in the GOM right now is in the western GOM.


https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.cf.gif

By wxgrant - Sept. 3, 2018, 3:59 p.m.
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By wxgrant - Sept. 3, 2018, 4:02 p.m.
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I'm seeing the track on my end now. Hopefully it loaded correctly. Looks like the worst will stay to the east of the track. I was just impressed this morning with the circulation as it moved offshore. And yes, the much warmer SST are to the west of Gordon. Good to know this type of track will have little impact on NG. Something to file away for next time. 

By metmike - Sept. 3, 2018, 4:33 p.m.
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Wonderful graphic. Thanks for sharing. 


The forecast below will have some impact on how the grains trade the remnants of Gordon.


A cold front midweek,  will stall and even return north as a warm front, ahead of a strong wave from a mid latitude source that may organize a system that entrains remnant moisture from Gordon and tracks northeast.


So what might happen is that the remnants of Gordon will continue to track northwest, possibly as far west as the OK/KS border by late Fri/early Sat.  At that point, it will get picked up by a system along a stalled front and load massive amounts of precipitable water into it.

That system will then track northeast over the weekend.........possibly strong enough to have a small  surface (low) reflection and dump some copious rain amounts along its path.  It will be moving, so hefty rain totals directly from Gordon will only last something like 6-12 hours in any spot once things get moving early in the weekend...............then be gone before the start of next work week.

This will not be the best weather for soybeans but because the outlook in week 2 is drier now than it was in previous days, this drying afterward should minimize any major problems that would cause yield loss from standing water in fields over a lengthy period.

By wxgrant - Sept. 3, 2018, 5:08 p.m.
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Hurricane Warning just issued for the Alabama and Mississippi Coasts. Radar is less impressive right now but Gordon is soon to move into a more favorable environment. 

By metmike - Sept. 3, 2018, 6:13 p.m.
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Looks like they boosted their intensity a tad to 75mph in the last discussion.

By WxFollower - Sept. 3, 2018, 7:42 p.m.
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Mike,

 Yeah, my guess is that there will be, starting today and lasting through at least Wednesday, 1-2 bcf/day of shutins. Perhaps the cumulative shutins will get as high as 3-6. I’m just guessing, of course.

By metmike - Sept. 3, 2018, 8:53 p.m.
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Shut-in

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shut-in_(oil_drilling)

This may be part of an attempt to constrict the oil supply[2] or a necessary precaution when crews are evacuated ahead of a natural disaster.[3]

By metmike - Sept. 4, 2018, 6:07 p.m.
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Gordon just a few hours from making landfall. Now at 70mph. Could just touch minimal hurricane strength briefly before hitting land. 

Gordon will merge with a cold front in the Midwest late this week.........but be accelerating in the northeast direction then. 


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/12085/

By wxgrant - Sept. 4, 2018, 7:24 p.m.
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Gordon is struggling. It is encountering a little more shear across the northern Gulf and lots of dry air wrapping in from the west side. Impacts to the left of the track seem minimal along the coast other than 50MPH wind gusts. But the projected path brings lots of rain inland. I honestly thought Gordon would have been a hurricane earlier this morning and then weaken as it moved into the more sheared environment.  I guess it still could become a hurricane if a few storms increase in the northern eye wall but overall the storm appears less organized. 

By metmike - Sept. 5, 2018, 2:50 p.m.
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Gordon hit and is producing heavy rains.  We can still see the well defined counterclockwise circulation around the dying center as of early afternoon in the state of MS. 


Base Reflectivity

Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
 

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop



Now we track the remnants headed N/NW, eventually merging with a cold front, now in the Midwest.