September 4th already. Time keeps ticking! Do something special to remember this next day! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it today.
The latest on tropical storm Gordon here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/11991/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!
Beans finally paid attention on Friday!
Too much rain in many places of the Cornbelt but so far nothing too excessive.
The change since last Friday and mentioned Sunday/Monday is that the area of heavy rains will shift southeast, starting in the middle part of this upcoming week. Also, forecast rain amounts are less because, with time more will have fallen already and less will be on the way.
The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive Rainfall threat. When there is an upper level ridge along the East Coast, it pumps moisture into the Midwest for heavy rain events.
There will continue to be a risk of excessive rains this week.............high confidence. However, the area with the heaviest rains will be different, starting on Wednesday.
Remnants of Gordon will generate the heaviest rains!
Current Day 1 Forecast
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk. Hit the map for full screen. Main risk is heavy rains not severe storms..........though a severe storm or 2 can't be ruled out.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
High Temperatures today and Wednesday. Hot in the Eastern 1/3rd of the USA. New cool front in the N.Plains/Upper Midwest early this week. ..................cooler air to cover a lot of area this week, that was supposed to have heat in last week's forecast.
Highs days 3-7.
September starting off hot. However, as noted on Sunday the big change in the forecast starts mid week.......... cooler air Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes, then Northeast as the week goes on. This surges farther south over the weekend!
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year? We are now 6 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.
Not nearly as hot as Fridays temperature forecast, even cooler than yesterdays forecast! In fact, each day since Saturday has gotten cooler and cooler!
High temperature departures:
Low Temperature Departures:
Here are the surface map features for that same days 3-7 period:
A cold front midweek, will stall and even return north as a warm front, ahead of a strong wave from a mid latitude source that may organize a system that entrains remnant moisture from Gordon and tracks northeast.
So what might happen is that the remnants of Gordon will continue to track northwest, possibly as far west as the OK/KS border by late Fri/early Sat. At that point, it will get picked up by a system along a stalled front and load massive amounts of precipitable water into it.
That system will then track northeast over the weekend.........possibly strong enough to have a small surface (low) reflection and dump some copious rain amounts along its path. It will be moving, so hefty rain totals directly from Gordon will only last something like 6-12 hours in any spot once things get moving early in the weekend...............then be gone before the start of next work week.
This will not be the best weather for soybeans.
Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!
Humid air in place. Gulf of Mexico moisture +fairly high soil moisture. This H2O is pooling into our huge rain maker the next several days. Added moisture will come fro Gordon.
Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Heat Index is a big factor from the Plains eastward right now.
As warm, moist air moves northward, with southerly winds(on the backside of a huge high pressure system along the East Coast) waves of heavy thunderstorms will continue the next several days in the Plains and Midwest.
But everything starts shifting southeast with a cold front, the leading edge of cooler and drier air taking front stage!
The remnants of Gordon will be moving northwest and later this week, will merge with the cold front.
https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather
Here is the latest radar image. Should be pretty active in parts of the Plains/Midwest.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
Satellite picture. Note the distinct cloud formation from Gordon. Clouds in the Upper Midwest then across the Plains.
Rains the past 24 hours. Heaviest around the periphery of the upper level heat ridge centered in the MidAtlantic, back thru the Ohio River Valley......... but nothing too excessive.
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Dry pocket in N. MO almost gone.
Much of the Cornbelt is in great shape for early September so the crops were fed lots of yield making H2O in August.
Wet from NE/w.IA/sw.MN to w.WI..............and the East Coast. It's still getting wetter for a large area of the Midwest this week.
The heavy rains will be shifting a bit southeast mid week.
Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward. This has increased yields in August!!!
Now we will get too much rain! But the too much rain will be shifting southeast midweek!
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in N.Missouri(which will shrink more in next weeks update) and Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in white.
Today: Big Heat in Eastern 1/3rd! Cool N.Plains!
In 5+ days:
Very warm across much of the country. Not as warm Midwest/East as Friday's forecast. 
In 10+ days:
Very warm for much of the country. Warmest in the West.
Day 15 Positive anomalies for much of the country. How warm will it be in the East?? Heat in mid September is not like heat in mid July!
The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
Question is........how dominant will the heat ridge be in the East as week 2 progresses? Will it be suppressed south?
Powerful jet stream in Canada! How far south will it dip into the US and where?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 19, 2018 00UTC
This was the GFS ensemble mean from 06z.....the last run. Still a stout heat ridge in the Southeast to points just north!
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.
Warm today but not extreme.
September is gradually getting cooler, almost every year and heating degree days start replacing cooling degree days as being the most important.
In October onward, warmth like this, especially in the Northern States will be increasingly BEARISH because it decreases the need for warming energy vs heat currently still increasing the need for cooling energy.
Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:
Precip below:
Looking way out to the latest NWS Winter Forecast that was updated this part week. Large area of above normal temperatures for the Northern 1/2 of the country.
Near normal temperatures in the Southern 1/2 and wet in the south.
This looks like an El Nino type analog. In other words, the NWS is expecting an El Nino this Winter(weak), so their seasonal forecast is mostly based off of historical tendencies for weather in the Great USA when there is an El Nino in the Pacific.
El Nino's are capable of having a profound influence on the weather......especially directly downstream(in the US). The oceans have 1,000 times more heat capacity than the atmosphere, and the Pacific Ocean has over half of that.
Changes in heating in the lower atmosphere is what causes our weather. This is all the result of the sun. The sun's angle changes, which is what causes more heat in some places vs others. Oceans store and release much of that heat, which pulsates randomly and also in cycles. Seasonal variations in the suns power/angle as well as a rotating planet(Coriolis force) are also big factors in tandem with the physics of a planet constantly trying to balance the meridional(with latitude) temperature contrast but never achieving that objective...........because it stays colder in places with a lower sun angle and warmer where the sun angle is higher.
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The trend of less rain in week 2 has really continued here. You might remember that all the week 2 forecasts last week featured widespread above average rains with fairly high probabilities.
Like, yesterday we continue to have a large area with BELOW average rain. Many areas will be water logged with excessive rains during week 1 and the drier weather will be just what the grain doctor ordered to minimize/lessen disease pressure and other issues from wet crops.
Early harvest, will not be so early in places that need awhile to dry out...........but week 2 should make things better.
The heat in week 2 will assist in drying out the corn crop as well as the ground. Hot weather from mid Sept onward is just loosing it's ability to be bullish for natural gas.
6-10 day Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
8-14 day Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
Threat for heavy rains in the 3-7 day period. Moving from the S.Plains/W.Cornbelt, then northeastward:
