Friday, September 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed but mostly weaker overnight.
U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward slightly lower
openings when the New York day session begins. 

Traders and investors are awaiting what is arguably the
most important U.S. economic report of the month, due out
this morning: the Labor Department’s employment situation
report for August. The key non-farm payrolls component is
expected to be up around 190,000. Thursday’s ADP national
employment report for August came in at up 163,000 jobs,
which was slightly below market expectations and hints the
more important Labor non-farm jobs number today may come in
light.

Emerging stock markets have slipped into bear territory,
according to a closely watched index—the MSCI Emerging
Markets Index. The index has dropped 20% from its recent
high. There are still lingering worries about eroding
emerging markets and secondary currencies creating a
contagion to impact larger currencies and financial
markets.

In overnight news, the Euro zone’s second-quarter GDP
growth came in unrevised at up 0.4% from the first quarter.
Year-on-year, GDP was up 2.1% versus the last annual
estimate of up 2.2%.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are also
slightly lower. Price action the past couple days in crude
suggests the oil bulls have run out of gas and that a near-
term market top is in place. 

There is no other major U.S. economic data due for release
Friday. 

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES 

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in
early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the firm overall
near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend still in place
on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-
, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 2,897.75
and then at this week’s high of 2,916.75. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,872.25 and
then at 2,860.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly
lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at 7,500.00 and then at 7,550.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of
7,436.25 and then at 7,400.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at the overnight high of 143 25/32 and then at 144
even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 142 28/32
and then at 142 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 120.07.5 and then at this week’s high of 120.09.5.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at this week’s low of 119.26.5
and then at 119.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly down in early
U.S. trading. The bulls still have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages
for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day
is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
neutral to bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of
95.280 and then at 95.500. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 94.450 and then at 94.250. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady. The bulls
appear to be exhausted to suggest a near-term market top is
in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early
today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look
for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at
Wednesday’s high of $69.00 and then at $69.59. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at this week’s low of
$67.00 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Worries on the
U.S.-world trade front continue to limit buying interest in
the grains. However, very wet weather in parts of the Corn
Belt at present is prompting ideas of harvest delays. Corn
and soybean bears are still in control amid big U.S. crop
potential. Wheat is being pulled down by corn and soybeans,
despite some global production shortfalls. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you. 

Jim Wyckoff