Weather Saturday
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Started by metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:03 a.m.

Amazing that it's September 8th already. Another day is gone! Do something special to remember this next day! Seriously, don't just think about it for a it today.

The new threat is along the East Coast from Hurricane Florence, starting in the middle of next week!!!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!

The heavy rains are in their final stage today in the Ohio River Valley.  Gordon's moisture is merged with a Midwest front. It all exits stage right tonight and Sunday.

Drying after this the following week minimizes the damage.

 The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below:

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:07 a.m.
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Raining Elephants and Hippos today in the Ohio Valley!

There will be a risk of excessive rains............rare "high risk" category across IL/IN/OH for awhile on Saturday, which moves northeast on Saturday Night and we start drying out, which continues next week.

The new threat, starting in the middle of next week will be from Hurricane Florence along the East Coast!

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:09 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen. Main  risk is heavy rains.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:13 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Sunday.   Hot Southwest to Rockies! Very cool in the Midwest to Northeast.


By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:16 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7. Heating back up next week!

Will it be hot enough to support natural gas?

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:17 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now 7 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

 Warming up again next week to well above average.............but average in mid September is not that hot anymore. With low storage, it's still possible to give a bullish kick to natural gas if it lasts.

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:21 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

Humid air in place in the south.  This H2O will continue to be used by our main weather maker today with much added moisture from the remnants of Gordon.

 Very dry air Plains to Great Lakes to Northeast.....which will come rushing in behind that system late today and Sunday. ............and dry things out next week.

Current Dew Points

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:22 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Heat Index is a big  factor over the Southeastern 1/3 of the US today.Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:25 a.m.
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The remnants of Gordon have merged with the mid latitude weather system and they are bombing the Ohio Valley with rains today. This all moves northeast tonight...........followed by much drier/cooler weather next week.

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:26 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image.  It's raining elephants and hippo's in the Ohio Valley today (-:

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:30 a.m.
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Satellite picture.    Clouds from the Northeast across the S.Great Lakes/Midwest from a cold front, enhanced high topped clouds show the heaviest rains from the remnants of Gordon.  

Florence in the Atlantic will be taking front stage all of next week. 

US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:33 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.  MO/IL/IN/OH got bombed!

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:33 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:38 a.m.
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Much of the Cornbelt was in great shape for early September so the crops were fed lots of yield making H2O in August.

Too wet in a zone across IA to s.WI.  It's getting too wet today for an area southeast of the wettest zones.

Drier next week, which will minimize the problems to the crops.

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:39 a.m.
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Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward. This increased yields in August!!!

Now we have had too much rain!  But the too much rain has shifted southeast as expected! It will come to an end today and we will dry out next week.

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:40 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in N.Missouri  and Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.


Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:49 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today:     Cool air surge.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product

In 5+ days:

Very warm air surge.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product

In 10+ days:

Another cool air surge south of border?
NCEP Ensemble t = 264 hour forecast product

Day 15  Positive anomalies Plains/Midwest. Heat in LATE September is not like heat in LATE July! How warm will it be in the East???

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

Will a new, late season heat ridge build later in week 2?


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 23, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 9:57 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.

Changeable. Not reliable.

September is gradually getting cooler, almost every year and heating degree days start replacing cooling degree days as being the most important.

In October onward, warmth like this, especially in the Northern States will be increasingly BEARISH because it decreases the need for warming energy vs heat currently still increasing the need for cooling energy.  

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2018, 5:31 p.m.
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The drying has already started in the water logged Western Cornbelt and will start tomorrow in the now waterlogged Eastern Cornbelt. This  should last a week. 

Week 2 maps having been looking wetter over the past day.

Week 2 continues to look very warm across most of the country. 

The start of week 2 will likely feature the remnants of Florence around the Midatlantic region. 

6-10 day Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

8-14 day Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By mcfarm - Sept. 9, 2018, 7:50 a.m.
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unfortunately for us your maps were dead on. it rained and rained and then rained some this am at 58 with guess what rain bit it is atleast light. total must of been 5 to 6 inches in a general area from c Ill thru c Ind. Did not feel like hurricane to me. More like a big front that you described picked up the available moisture. Harvest had started for many but has suddenly come to a week of waiting l......its a mess