Amazing that it's September 9th already. Another day is gone! Do something special to remember this next day! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it today.
The new threat is along the East Coast from Hurricane Florence, starting in the middle of this week!!!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/12263/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!
The heavy rains are finally over in the Cornbelt. The last of the wet weather is exiting the Eastern Cornbelt right now. Now before providing a soggy Sunday to Mike the Plumber!
Drying this week will help to minimize the damage.
The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive rain threat moving east.
The new threat, starting in the middle of THIS week will be from Hurricane Florence along the East Coast!
Current Day 1 Forecast
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk. Hit the map for full screen.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
High Temperatures today and Monday. Hot Southwest, very warm Rockies to N.Plains! Very cool in the Midwest to Northeast.
Highs days 3-7. Heating back up next week!
Will it be warm/hot enough to support natural gas?
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year? We are now 7 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.
Warming up again next week to well above average.............but average in mid September is not that hot anymore. With low storage, it's still possible to give a bullish kick to natural gas if it was going to last.
High temperature departures:
Low Temperature Departures:
Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!
Humid air being shoved south.
Very dry air Plains to Midwest to East....................pushing south and drying things out this week.
Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Heat Index is a big factor over the far Southeastern US today.
The remnants of Gordon and the mid latitude weather system are bombing the Northeast today.......drier/cooler weather is moving in behind that system.
https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather
Here is the latest radar image. It's raining elephants and hippo's on top of Mikempt (-:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
Satellite picture. Clouds from the Northeast across the E.Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.
Florence in the Atlantic will be taking front stage all of this week.
Rains the past 24 hours. IL/IN/OH/PA got bombed!
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Much of the Cornbelt was in great shape for early September so the crops were fed lots of yield making H2O in August.
Too wet in a huge area now!
Drier this week, which will minimize the problems to the crops.
Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward. This increased yields in August!!!
Now we have had too much rain! But the too much rain has shifted southeast as expected! It will come to an end today and we will dry out next week.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in N.Missouri and Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in white.
Today: Cool air surge Midwest to S.Plains. Hot Southwest.
In 5+ days:
Very warm/hot air surge. 
In 10+ days:
Cold in Canada! Another very cool air surge south of border?
Day 15 Positive anomalies Plains/Midwest over much of the US. Heat in LATE September is not like heat in LATE July! How warm will it be in the East???
The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
12z ensembles on Sunday are all over the place by late week 2.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 24, 2018 12 UTC
12Z GFS ensembles at the end of 2 weeks. Weak upper level ridging south, zonal, west to east jet stream along the Canadian border. Nothing unusual.
Forecast Hour: 360
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-mean-sprd/12/gefs-mean-sprd_namer_360_500_vort_ht.gif
The model below actually combines the GFS and Canadian ensembles into one overall average and often yields an even more consistent product than the separate ensembles.
The closed 588 decameter contour, for instance, that was closer to S.Oklahoma at the bottom, is now in N.Oklahoma at the top. Even the 570 dm contour is slightly farther north on the newer map. This just means temperatures are being projected a tad warmer in the Plains/Midwest.
Just the opposite is true in the West. The 576 dm contour that was in N.Washington St is now in the southern part of the state, along the Oregon border...........so upper level troughing is a bit stronger out there.
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.
Changeable. Not reliable. It goes from cool in the Midwest in week 3, to record warmth in week 4.
September is gradually getting cooler, almost every year and heating degree days start replacing cooling degree days as being the most important.
In October onward, warmth like this, especially in the Northern States will be increasingly BEARISH because it decreases the need for warming energy vs heat currently still increasing the need for cooling energy.
Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:
Precip below:
NWS Week 2 maps below. These are automated on the weekends.
6-10 day Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
8-14 day Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
NWS Week 2 maps below. These are automated on the weekends.
| 6-10 day Temperature Probability |
| Precipitation Probability |
| 8-14 day Temperature Probability |
| Precipitation Probability |
