Hurricane Florence
16 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - Sept. 10, 2018, 1:41 p.m.

Discussions below appear in chronological order, so the oldest ones are first/at the top and are old...........very old by weather forecasting standards. However, the maps that appear are constantly updated so an old discussion usually appears with the latest maps.

The latest metmike discussions/updates are at the bottom............scroll down and enjoy them.


Some of the latest key links to Florence information are below. Latest forecast is for Florence to be a major hurricane soon and to strike around the NC Coast  very late Thursday. 


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/101450.shtml?


    

cone graphic


time of arrival graphic

Total 7 day rains below
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 10, 2018, 2:19 p.m.
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The last GFS is a crazy outlier and causes the remnants of Florence to drift  southwest into SC and even NE.Georgia.

Most of the other guidance moves things northward.

Day 9 12z GFS below:

      

gfs_namer_225_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_225_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_225_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_225_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_225_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_225_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_225_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_225_850_temp_ht_s.gif

                                    


            

                            Day 8 GFS Ensembles below:


By patrick - Sept. 10, 2018, 2:30 p.m.
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I've been impressed by the lack of wobble in the models, but the Carolinas are a big target, not like trying to thread between Cuba & Key West.

Very odd season in the E Pacific. Olivia is what, the 3rd storm holding together way into the Central? - and maybe the first to hit Hawaii.

By wxgrant - Sept. 10, 2018, 4:58 p.m.
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Here all all the ensemble members. Wilmington, NC seems to be right in the middle. I think it goes just a tad south, but not by much. 

By wxgrant - Sept. 10, 2018, 5:06 p.m.
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I have an arrow pointing to the blocking ridge over the Atlantic. This is why I think it will go slightly left of the official track. Image shows the EURO ensembles @ 500mb. 

By metmike - Sept. 10, 2018, 6:39 p.m.
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Thanks Grant,

It looks like the European model guidance it taking it much farther left/south and then west than the GFS. The last European model has the remnants over KY by late weekend.

I noted that the GFS ensembles actually came in even a bit farther north at 12z(and then have it drifting north, along the coast it never makes landfall) vs the 0z run and weakened that upper level ridge a tad to allow that to happen.  The last, 12z ensemble mean run is below compared to the one from 12 hours previous, which is just below that.


gefs-mean-sprd_namer_096_mslp.gif

gefs-mean-sprd_namer_108_mslp.gif

By metmike - Sept. 10, 2018, 7:07 p.m.
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The just updated 18z GFS has it initially coming in slightly farther to the left/South vs the previous run 6 hours ago, then has it stalled off the NC coast for a couple of days, then meandering around the SC coast for another day+ before finally making landfall(with its center) on Sunday night/early Monday, then starting to move north later Monday and finally accelerating north on Tuesday of next week.

A track like this might cause life threatening flooding just inland in North Carolina and vicinity as rains might continue in the same area for numerous consecutive days. Starting Thursday and possibly last into early next week.

The last GFS total  thru 9 days is below. It  only has a 10+ inch contour over land but will do a poor job capturing an event like this. Heaviest rainfall amounts could be 20+ inches just inland IF the storm took the GFS track. 

The main reason to show this map is because it has a 50 inch rainfall contour(bright yellow in the center) well off the NC coast. How often do you see that one? Almost never. 

Forecast Hour:  216
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_216_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_namer_216_precip_ptot.gif



By metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 10:53 a.m.
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Florence has rapidly strengthened to 140 mph sustained highest winds and is accelerating northwest.......update 11am: This hurricane is going to decelerate approaching the coast and could even stall off the coast for some time. This makes landfall, which is defined as being when the CENTER of the hurricane crosses the coastline very uncertain.

After that, there is a huge disparity for the forecast track. The GFS solutions keep the hurricane meandering along the coast for several days. The European model meanders for a day, then moves it to the SC/GA border then to KY by early next week.

What seems clear is that the remnants will not be moving very fast, with the blocking ridge to the north....... Grant mentioned yesterday....... keeping it from being able to move north and get picked up by stronger mid level steering currents.

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 12:43 p.m.
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The latest 12z GFS has changed its tune and looks more like the previous European model forecasts(the European model often does a better job with these systems)

The current path for the remnants is shown to be slowly westward to Eastern Kentucky by Sunday Morning.

      

      gfs_namer_120_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_120_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_120_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_120_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_120_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_120_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_120_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_120_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 12:47 p.m.
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The models will struggle to get rainfall forecasts consistent and accurate.

The latest one from the 12z GFS below has a 30 rainfall max along the NC coast.


Forecast Hour:  207
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_207_precip_ptot.gif   gfs_namer_207_precip_ptot.gif

By GunterK - Sept. 11, 2018, 2:05 p.m.
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this guy here says that this storm has been manipulated to be what it is now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=318&v=BDv4rQTuAIM


Hey, what do I know?

By hayman - Sept. 11, 2018, 3:41 p.m.
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Today's up reversal in NatGas due to Hurricane Flo?  Or is it like "funda Bunga" says on the investing.com forum:

Donkey Money                                    FundaBunga                                1 hour ago                

                            

""The weather influence isn't about Florence. It is about the Invest 95 weather system in the GOM now having a 70% of forming into an organized tropical system. Invest 95 will affect GOM production and if it further develops, could close refineries etc along the gulf.""


Comments, weather Women and Gentlemen?

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 3:52 p.m.
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Gunter,

You're making my head hurt with that chemtrail crapola (-:

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 4:01 p.m.
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Look at the latest path for Florence based on the just out 12z European model for 24 hour periods starting Thursday Morning and going out the next week. Holy Cow!  It drops down into Nothern Georgia!

























 


By wxgrant - Sept. 11, 2018, 5:18 p.m.
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EURO Ensembles showing why the operational is showing a horrible scenario. Blocking high in my neck of the woods making Florence skirt the coast. This would cause huge impacts from Wilmington down to Savannah.  

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 7:08 p.m.
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Thanks Grant,

The GFS continues farther north/right, the European model farther south/left with the track after Saturday.


Here are the NWS days 3-7 maps for surface features and total rain. Looks much closer to the GFS. That pink on the rain total map is the 20 inch contour!

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Sept. 12, 2018, 10:46 a.m.
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Florence is around 130 mph, the peak intensity forecast for Florence is 145 mph right now.

The biggest changes over the past 12 hours is for the guidance to be lining up closer to the European models prediction for the remnants, so the track has shifted farther south and west vs Tuesday at this time...............getting to the Northeast Georgia border now.


But the European model, which has done best is going even farther southwest and takes the hurricane south, along the East Coast to the Georgia coast on Sunday! It makes landfall there........then goes inland to central GA!

Maps below from Sunday to Thursday of next week-every 18 hours.