Natural Gas Tuesday
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Started by metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 10:34 a.m.

For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning...........and soon, to generate residential heating:

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 10:35 a.m.
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From Natural Gas Intelligence: 

Florence Looms as Forecast Risks Mixed; October Natural Gas Called Lower

     8:54 AM    

October natural gas futures were trading slightly lower Tuesday morning at around $2.795/MMBtu as forecasters pointed to a mix of warmer and cooler risks in the overnight data, while Hurricane Florence may threaten demand destruction later this week. Read More

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 10:35 a.m.
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Storage is Very Low for this time of year!! This is why the temperature forecast  the Summer/cooling season and Winter/heating season.

Storage is just below the  bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 10:37 a.m.
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From Thursday: EIA number +63 bcf        Neutral?

      Comments from Natural Gas Intelligence after the number was reported:

EIA Storage Matches Consensus as Natural Gas Futures Response Mixed


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 63 Bcf build into Lower 48 gas stocks for the week ended Aug. 31, a number that fell in line with estimates


Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
5-year average
Region08/31/1808/24/18net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East662  640  22  22   776  -14.7  759  -12.8  
Midwest699  667  32  32   867  -19.4  847  -17.5  
Mountain162  157  5  5   205  -21.0  192  -15.6  
Pacific246  241  5  5   297  -17.2  324  -24.1  
South Central799  800  -1  -1   1,065  -25.0  1,036  -22.9  
   Salt178  183  -5  -5   265  -32.8  262  -32.1  
   Nonsalt621  617  4  4   800  -22.4  774  -19.8  
Total2,568  2,505  63  63   3,211  -20.0  3,158  -18.7  

This report, for the week ending August 31, 2018, will be  the last report EIA publishes using the current sample. As previously  announced, on Monday, September 10, 2018, at 3:00 p.m., EIA will revise  estimates for the eight weeks covering July 13, 2018, through August 31, 2018,  to gradually phase in the estimates from the new sample. For additional  information, please see the notice of changes to the WNGSR:
By metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 10:37 a.m.
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By metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 10:38 a.m.
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Here are the temperatures from the 7 day period, ending last Friday that will be used for this upcoming Thursday's EIA storage report. Near record heat in some high population centers of the East(and Eastern Midwest). So its likely that the injection will be a bit less than the 5 year average, maybe less than the previous 2 weeks?

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 10:38 a.m.
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Natural gas hit some tough resistance back in August. Even the hottest of the hot forecasts couldn't push us to $3 with very low storage.

 Temperatures as we go out to late September are getting to the time of year that is not as important for cooling. The heating season will be coming up. But we are hitting a zone of strong support with that low storage also in place.

Natural gas 3 months

Naturalgas 1 year below

Naturalgas 5 years below


Naturalgas10years below                
By metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 6:53 p.m.
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Closing comments from Natural Gas Intelligence:


Small Weather Changes Lift October Natural Gas; Spot Gas Rises, But Florence Could Slash Demand

     5:37 PM    

October natural gas prices climbed for a second day Tuesday as weather models turned slightly warmer in the medium range. Meanwhile, Hurricane Florence had her eyes on the Carolinas as the storm was expected to make landfall near the coast later this week, potentially leading to widespread power outages and flooding. 

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2018, 7:26 p.m.
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An interesting take on the weather for natural gas from the absence of other explanations.

The north is starting to experience residential heating........and this is where cold shots, some potentially with gusto are headed in week 2 and possibly beyond.

The south is still experiencing residential cooling demand........and this is where temperatures will be well above normal.