INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 31, 2018, 7:44 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, January 31, 2018   

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 424.4)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +4.5%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 264.4)

 



 

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +6.1%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1325.8)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

8:15 AM ET. January ADP National Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +180000; previous +250000)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index

 



 

 

                       ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

                       ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.5%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Department of the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. January ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI-Adj (expected 63.0; previous 67.6)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Online Help Wanted Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Pending Home Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 109.5)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 411.583M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.071M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 244.04M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.098M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 139.84M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.639M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 90.9%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.636M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.173M)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision

 



 

 

                       Federal Funds Rate

 



 

 

                       Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)

 



 

 

                       Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 1.50)

 



 

 

                       Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 1.25)

 



 

 

                       FOMC Vote For Action (previous 7)

 



 

 

                       FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 2)

 



 

 

                       Discount Rate (previous 2.00)

 



 

 

                       Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.25)

 



 

 

                       Discount Rate-Range High

 



 

 

                       Discount Rate-Range Low

 



 

 

Thursday, February 1, 2018  

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. January Challenger Job-Cut Report

 



 

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -7.4%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1890.7K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1527.9K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 190.6K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +0.6%; previous +3.0%)

 



 

 

                       Unit Labor Costs (expected +0.9%; previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 235K; previous 233K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +17K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1937000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -28K)

 



 

 

9:30 AM ET. IMF regular press briefing

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. January US Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 55.1)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

 



 

 

                       New Construction (expected +0.3%; previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

                       Residential Construction

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January ISM Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 58.5; previous 59.7)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 69.0)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 57.0)

 



 

 

                       Inventories (previous 48.5)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 69.4)

 



 

 

                       Production Idx (previous 65.8)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2296B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -288B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. January Global Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 54.5)

 



 

 

4:00 PM ET. January Domestic Auto Industry Sales

 



 

 

                       Auto Sales Annualized (expected 17.3M; previous 17.85M)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, February 2, 2018   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +175K; previous +148K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 4.0%; previous 4.1%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 26.63)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.09)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.34%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.5%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous +2K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +146K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. January ISM-NY Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Business Index (previous 56.3)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 95.0; previous 95.9)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 84.3)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.4%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.8)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous +1.3%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.2%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +1.3%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. U.S. stock futures were modestly higher overnight putting the Dow on track for a modest recovery from a two-day drop in which it shed 540 points, or 2%. Strategists said President Donald Trump’s relatively unsurprising State of the Union address could be helping the investing mood, as traders brace for a Federal Reserve statement, more earnings reports and a raft of economic data. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a downside correction, the first of the year is possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6816.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the NASDAQ 100 index extends this winter's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7047.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6935.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6816.55.  



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2795.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2878.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2795.99. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2736.80.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 145-26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 148-20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-26. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 147-04. Second support is weekly support crossing at 145-26.  



March T-notes were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of this week's losses. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 120.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.209 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.038. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.209. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 121.170. Second support is weekly support crossing at 120.285. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: MarchNymex crude oil was slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off last June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 66.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.27.



March heating oil was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 202.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 213.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96. First support is the reaction low crossing at 202.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 199.21.      



March unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.26 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 197.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 193.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 197.79. First support is the reaction low crossing at 183.88. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.26. 



March Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.977 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.281 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.177. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.281. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.977. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.902.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.48. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.42. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 88.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.



The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at 126.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.88. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.50. 



The March British Pound was higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3868 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.4370. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4091. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3868.  



The March Swiss Franc were slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the August-2016 high crossing at 1.0859 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0463 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.0804. Second resistance is the August-2016 high crossing at 1.0859.  First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0604. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0463.     



The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.54 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. Second resistance is 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.54. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.48.



The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9053 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9218. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9142. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9053.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1337.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off December's low, the contract high posted in August-2016 crossing at 1396.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1370.50. Second resistance is the August-2016 high crossing at 1396.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1337.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1303.80.



March silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that  a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.754 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 18.015 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 18.015. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.754. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140. 



March copper was slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.52 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.62 1/4. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.49 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2.  



March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 4.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.29 1/2 would confirm that a short-term  top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.58 3/4. Second resistance is last September's high crossing at 4.82. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.19 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.13 1/4.    



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 16 3/4-cents at 4.69 3/4. 



March Kansas City wheat gapped up and closed sharply higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, last September's high crossing at 4.77 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.53. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.77 1/2. First support is Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.53. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.20 1/2.      



March Minneapolis wheat was unchanged overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.20 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is January's low crossing at 6.04 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off January's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.75 1/4 would signal an end to this month's rally. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.16 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.86 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.75 1/4.



March soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 328.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 351.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 344.90. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 351.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 336.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 328.00.



March soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.39. First support is January's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.



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